Premier League 2026/27
Arsenal
Results through 18 Oct 2026 · dated forecast · pc-xg-2.0.0
No player or injury effects.
Win the title
43.4%
Top-four finish
98.5%
Relegation
0.0%
Projected points
78.5
In 80% of simulated seasons, Arsenal finish with 70–87 points. That is a range of possible match outcomes, not a guarantee. Top four means league position, not guaranteed European qualification.
0.0% means no such finish occurred in this run, not that it is impossible.
How this forecast works
Recorded match results inform team ratings. The remaining season is simulated 100,000 times, keeping played results fixed. The points range assumes those ratings are right; it does not include uncertainty in the ratings. No player, injury or rest-day adjustments are included.
Snapshot dated 18 Oct 2026Results through 18 Oct 2026 · no scheduled results missing as of 18 Oct 2026 · next fixtures 18 Oct 2026
- Season
- 2026/27
- Data cutoff
- 18 Oct 2026
- Source fetched
- 18 Oct 2026, 16:17 UTC
- Model run
- 18 Oct 2026, 16:17 UTC
- Simulations
- 100,000 · seed 1613084666
- Model
- pc-xg-2.0.0
Pitchcast app engine · Results data: OpenFootball (CC0), with validated final-score supplementation where available. Historical shot-based expected goals: Understat.com. Football data provided by the Football-Data.org API
Seed 1613084666. Sampling noise is separate from model uncertainty. Source records and checksums are retained with the snapshot.
More about possible finishes and team ratings
Finishing position distribution
Current table
3rd · 15 pts from 6 · 5W 0D 1L · GD +5
Projected final points
78.5
80% of simulations finish between 70 and 87 points (median 79). This spread reflects match randomness given the fitted ratings, not uncertainty in the ratings themselves.
Ratings (log-scale, 0 = average)
Attack +0.61 · Defence +0.58
Remaining fixtures
All league fixturesOrdered by kickoff (UTC). Kickoff times and status: Football data provided by the Football-Data.org API; probabilities unchanged from the snapshot. Expected goals are the model's predicted goal rates, not shot-based xG.
- Exp. goals 0.91–1.51H 21%D 29%A 50%
- Exp. goals 1.94–0.67H 66%D 23%A 11%
- Exp. goals 1.03–1.44H 25%D 30%A 45%
- Exp. goals 2.27–0.48H 77%D 17%A 5%
- Exp. goals 0.95–1.86H 18%D 25%A 57%
- Exp. goals 1.57–1.09H 47%D 28%A 25%
- Exp. goals 1.08–1.58H 24%D 28%A 48%
- Exp. goals 0.75–1.60H 16%D 28%A 56%
- Exp. goals 1.83–0.89H 58%D 25%A 17%
- Exp. goals 1.74–0.94H 55%D 26%A 19%
- Exp. goals 0.85–1.80H 16%D 25%A 58%
- Exp. goals 0.84–1.68H 17%D 27%A 56%
- Exp. goals 2.04–0.58H 71%D 21%A 8%
- Exp. goals 1.93–0.88H 61%D 24%A 15%
- Exp. goals 0.59–1.86H 10%D 23%A 67%
- Exp. goals 2.28–0.78H 70%D 20%A 10%
- Exp. goals 1.34–1.29H 36%D 29%A 34%
- Exp. goals 1.77–0.84H 58%D 26%A 16%
- Exp. goals 0.71–1.67H 14%D 27%A 59%
- Exp. goals 2.06–0.69H 68%D 22%A 10%
- Exp. goals 1.15–1.43H 29%D 29%A 42%
- Exp. goals 2.20–0.70H 71%D 20%A 9%
- Exp. goals 1.12–1.67H 24%D 27%A 49%
- Exp. goals 2.08–0.64H 70%D 21%A 9%
- Exp. goals 0.74–1.54H 16%D 28%A 55%
- Exp. goals 1.93–0.80H 63%D 24%A 13%
- Exp. goals 1.09–1.50H 26%D 29%A 45%
- Exp. goals 1.96–0.61H 68%D 22%A 10%
- Exp. goals 0.96–1.48H 23%D 29%A 48%
- Exp. goals 1.85–0.74H 62%D 24%A 13%
- Exp. goals 0.83–1.58H 18%D 28%A 54%
- Exp. goals 1.70–0.88H 55%D 27%A 18%
Model factors and source records
- activeShot-quality team ratingsPremier League ratings blend 75% verified historical Understat xG with 25% goals, scaled to actual scoring using training matches only. Championship inputs remain goals. Selected on 2024/25; later-season gains are modest and uncertain.
- activeOpponent-adjusted attack & defence ratingsFitted jointly over Premier League and Championship results with ridge shrinkage.
- activeHome advantageSingle fitted coefficient, shared by all teams.
- activeRecency weighting (form)Exponential time decay on past matches; no streak bonuses.
- activeLow-score (Dixon–Coles) correctionρ fitted by profile likelihood; adjusts 0-0, 1-0, 0-1, 1-1 only.
- activePromoted-team priorsChampionship results linked to the PL scale via teams that moved divisions, shrunk toward average.
- disabledPlayer availability & injuriesNo licensed, verified player data source yet. Not part of the baseline.
- disabledRest days & fixture congestionRequires kickoff times and an estimated, tested coefficient. Off until validated.
- disabledMarket oddsNot used as an input or benchmark until timing and licence are established.
Pitchcast app engine · Results data: OpenFootball (CC0), with validated final-score supplementation where available. Historical shot-based expected goals: Understat.com. Football data provided by the Football-Data.org API
Training data through 18 Oct 2026 · 899 matches · model pc-xg-2.0.0