Premier League 2026/27
Liverpool
Results through 18 Oct 2026 · dated forecast · pc-xg-2.0.0
No player or injury effects.
Win the title
0.4%
Top-four finish
30.7%
Relegation
0.1%
Projected points
59.5
In 80% of simulated seasons, Liverpool finish with 51–69 points. That is a range of possible match outcomes, not a guarantee. Top four means league position, not guaranteed European qualification.
How this forecast works
Recorded match results inform team ratings. The remaining season is simulated 100,000 times, keeping played results fixed. The points range assumes those ratings are right; it does not include uncertainty in the ratings. No player, injury or rest-day adjustments are included.
Snapshot dated 18 Oct 2026Results through 18 Oct 2026 · no scheduled results missing as of 18 Oct 2026 · next fixtures 18 Oct 2026
- Season
- 2026/27
- Data cutoff
- 18 Oct 2026
- Source fetched
- 18 Oct 2026, 16:17 UTC
- Model run
- 18 Oct 2026, 16:17 UTC
- Simulations
- 100,000 · seed 1613084666
- Model
- pc-xg-2.0.0
Pitchcast app engine · Results data: OpenFootball (CC0), with validated final-score supplementation where available. Historical shot-based expected goals: Understat.com. Football data provided by the Football-Data.org API
Seed 1613084666. Sampling noise is separate from model uncertainty. Source records and checksums are retained with the snapshot.
More about possible finishes and team ratings
Finishing position distribution
Current table
5th · 12 pts from 7 · 3W 3D 1L · GD +1
Projected final points
59.5
80% of simulations finish between 51 and 69 points (median 59). This spread reflects match randomness given the fitted ratings, not uncertainty in the ratings themselves.
Ratings (log-scale, 0 = average)
Attack +0.45 · Defence +0.20
Remaining fixtures
All league fixturesOrdered by kickoff (UTC). Kickoff times and status: Football data provided by the Football-Data.org API; probabilities unchanged from the snapshot. Expected goals are the model's predicted goal rates, not shot-based xG.
- Exp. goals 1.46–1.30H 39%D 28%A 32%
- Exp. goals 1.03–1.44H 25%D 30%A 45%
- Exp. goals 1.25–1.54H 29%D 28%A 43%
- Exp. goals 1.49–1.37H 39%D 28%A 33%
- Exp. goals 1.21–1.36H 32%D 30%A 39%
- Exp. goals 1.79–0.93H 56%D 26%A 18%
- Exp. goals 1.65–1.43H 42%D 26%A 32%
- Exp. goals 1.55–1.15H 45%D 28%A 27%
- Exp. goals 1.68–0.90H 54%D 27%A 19%
- Exp. goals 0.86–1.59H 19%D 28%A 53%
- Exp. goals 1.43–1.35H 38%D 28%A 34%
- Exp. goals 1.62–0.88H 53%D 28%A 19%
- Exp. goals 1.14–1.46H 28%D 29%A 43%
- Exp. goals 1.88–1.02H 56%D 25%A 19%
- Exp. goals 1.68–1.22H 47%D 27%A 26%
- Exp. goals 1.66–0.99H 52%D 27%A 21%
- Exp. goals 1.77–0.84H 58%D 26%A 16%
- Exp. goals 1.08–1.32H 29%D 31%A 41%
- Exp. goals 1.95–0.70H 66%D 23%A 11%
- Exp. goals 1.10–1.37H 28%D 30%A 42%
- Exp. goals 1.65–1.17H 47%D 27%A 25%
- Exp. goals 1.75–0.85H 57%D 26%A 17%
- Exp. goals 1.23–1.44H 31%D 29%A 40%
- Exp. goals 1.95–1.14H 55%D 24%A 21%
- Exp. goals 1.33–1.29H 36%D 29%A 35%
- Exp. goals 1.41–1.27H 39%D 29%A 32%
- Exp. goals 1.75–1.35H 46%D 26%A 28%
- Exp. goals 1.96–1.10H 56%D 24%A 20%
- Exp. goals 1.66–1.29H 45%D 27%A 28%
- Exp. goals 1.58–1.19H 45%D 28%A 27%
- Exp. goals 1.57–1.31H 42%D 28%A 30%
Model factors and source records
- activeShot-quality team ratingsPremier League ratings blend 75% verified historical Understat xG with 25% goals, scaled to actual scoring using training matches only. Championship inputs remain goals. Selected on 2024/25; later-season gains are modest and uncertain.
- activeOpponent-adjusted attack & defence ratingsFitted jointly over Premier League and Championship results with ridge shrinkage.
- activeHome advantageSingle fitted coefficient, shared by all teams.
- activeRecency weighting (form)Exponential time decay on past matches; no streak bonuses.
- activeLow-score (Dixon–Coles) correctionρ fitted by profile likelihood; adjusts 0-0, 1-0, 0-1, 1-1 only.
- activePromoted-team priorsChampionship results linked to the PL scale via teams that moved divisions, shrunk toward average.
- disabledPlayer availability & injuriesNo licensed, verified player data source yet. Not part of the baseline.
- disabledRest days & fixture congestionRequires kickoff times and an estimated, tested coefficient. Off until validated.
- disabledMarket oddsNot used as an input or benchmark until timing and licence are established.
Pitchcast app engine · Results data: OpenFootball (CC0), with validated final-score supplementation where available. Historical shot-based expected goals: Understat.com. Football data provided by the Football-Data.org API
Training data through 18 Oct 2026 · 899 matches · model pc-xg-2.0.0