Premier League 2026/27
Newcastle United
Results through 18 Oct 2026 · dated forecast · pc-xg-2.0.0
No player or injury effects.
Win the title
0.0%
Top-four finish
0.6%
Relegation
16.4%
Projected points
44.4
In 80% of simulated seasons, Newcastle United finish with 36–53 points. That is a range of possible match outcomes, not a guarantee. Top four means league position, not guaranteed European qualification.
How this forecast works
Recorded match results inform team ratings. The remaining season is simulated 100,000 times, keeping played results fixed. The points range assumes those ratings are right; it does not include uncertainty in the ratings. No player, injury or rest-day adjustments are included.
Snapshot dated 18 Oct 2026Results through 18 Oct 2026 · no scheduled results missing as of 18 Oct 2026 · next fixtures 18 Oct 2026
- Season
- 2026/27
- Data cutoff
- 18 Oct 2026
- Source fetched
- 18 Oct 2026, 16:17 UTC
- Model run
- 18 Oct 2026, 16:17 UTC
- Simulations
- 100,000 · seed 1613084666
- Model
- pc-xg-2.0.0
Pitchcast app engine · Results data: OpenFootball (CC0), with validated final-score supplementation where available. Historical shot-based expected goals: Understat.com. Football data provided by the Football-Data.org API
Seed 1613084666. Sampling noise is separate from model uncertainty. Source records and checksums are retained with the snapshot.
More about possible finishes and team ratings
Finishing position distribution
Current table
11th · 8 pts from 7 · 2W 2D 3L · GD −4
Projected final points
44.4
80% of simulations finish between 36 and 53 points (median 44). This spread reflects match randomness given the fitted ratings, not uncertainty in the ratings themselves.
Ratings (log-scale, 0 = average)
Attack +0.37 · Defence −0.06
Remaining fixtures
All league fixturesOrdered by kickoff (UTC). Kickoff times and status: Football data provided by the Football-Data.org API; probabilities unchanged from the snapshot. Expected goals are the model's predicted goal rates, not shot-based xG.
- Exp. goals 1.61–1.42H 41%D 27%A 32%
- Exp. goals 1.53–1.28H 42%D 28%A 30%
- Exp. goals 1.58–1.33H 42%D 27%A 31%
- Exp. goals 0.95–1.86H 18%D 25%A 57%
- Exp. goals 2.04–1.10H 58%D 23%A 19%
- Exp. goals 1.38–1.77H 29%D 26%A 46%
- Exp. goals 1.64–1.20H 46%D 27%A 27%
- Exp. goals 1.35–1.32H 36%D 29%A 35%
- Exp. goals 2.03–1.25H 54%D 24%A 22%
- Exp. goals 1.24–2.06H 21%D 23%A 55%
- Exp. goals 1.46–1.40H 37%D 28%A 35%
- Exp. goals 2.12–1.31H 55%D 23%A 22%
- Exp. goals 2.17–1.13H 60%D 22%A 18%
- Exp. goals 1.62–1.30H 44%D 27%A 29%
- Exp. goals 2.28–0.78H 70%D 20%A 10%
- Exp. goals 1.34–1.67H 29%D 27%A 44%
- Exp. goals 1.56–1.25H 43%D 28%A 29%
- Exp. goals 1.61–1.74H 35%D 25%A 40%
- Exp. goals 2.52–1.01H 69%D 19%A 12%
- Exp. goals 1.53–1.66H 34%D 26%A 40%
- Exp. goals 1.72–1.19H 48%D 27%A 25%
- Exp. goals 2.06–1.18H 56%D 23%A 20%
- Exp. goals 1.43–1.49H 35%D 28%A 37%
- Exp. goals 1.95–1.14H 55%D 24%A 21%
- Exp. goals 1.55–1.16H 45%D 28%A 27%
- Exp. goals 1.61–1.10H 48%D 28%A 25%
- Exp. goals 1.47–1.34H 39%D 28%A 33%
- Exp. goals 1.49–1.14H 44%D 29%A 27%
- Exp. goals 1.84–1.25H 50%D 25%A 25%
- Exp. goals 1.73–1.32H 46%D 26%A 28%
- Exp. goals 1.11–1.47H 27%D 29%A 44%
Model factors and source records
- activeShot-quality team ratingsPremier League ratings blend 75% verified historical Understat xG with 25% goals, scaled to actual scoring using training matches only. Championship inputs remain goals. Selected on 2024/25; later-season gains are modest and uncertain.
- activeOpponent-adjusted attack & defence ratingsFitted jointly over Premier League and Championship results with ridge shrinkage.
- activeHome advantageSingle fitted coefficient, shared by all teams.
- activeRecency weighting (form)Exponential time decay on past matches; no streak bonuses.
- activeLow-score (Dixon–Coles) correctionρ fitted by profile likelihood; adjusts 0-0, 1-0, 0-1, 1-1 only.
- activePromoted-team priorsChampionship results linked to the PL scale via teams that moved divisions, shrunk toward average.
- disabledPlayer availability & injuriesNo licensed, verified player data source yet. Not part of the baseline.
- disabledRest days & fixture congestionRequires kickoff times and an estimated, tested coefficient. Off until validated.
- disabledMarket oddsNot used as an input or benchmark until timing and licence are established.
Pitchcast app engine · Results data: OpenFootball (CC0), with validated final-score supplementation where available. Historical shot-based expected goals: Understat.com. Football data provided by the Football-Data.org API
Training data through 18 Oct 2026 · 899 matches · model pc-xg-2.0.0