Premier League 2026/27
Brighton
Results through 18 Oct 2026 · dated forecast · pc-xg-2.0.0
No player or injury effects.
Win the title
3.0%
Top-four finish
69.0%
Relegation
0.0%
Projected points
65.7
In 80% of simulated seasons, Brighton finish with 57–75 points. That is a range of possible match outcomes, not a guarantee. Top four means league position, not guaranteed European qualification.
0.0% means no such finish occurred in this run, not that it is impossible.
How this forecast works
Recorded match results inform team ratings. The remaining season is simulated 100,000 times, keeping played results fixed. The points range assumes those ratings are right; it does not include uncertainty in the ratings. No player, injury or rest-day adjustments are included.
Snapshot dated 18 Oct 2026Results through 18 Oct 2026 · no scheduled results missing as of 18 Oct 2026 · next fixtures 18 Oct 2026
- Season
- 2026/27
- Data cutoff
- 18 Oct 2026
- Source fetched
- 18 Oct 2026, 16:17 UTC
- Model run
- 18 Oct 2026, 16:17 UTC
- Simulations
- 100,000 · seed 1613084666
- Model
- pc-xg-2.0.0
Pitchcast app engine · Results data: OpenFootball (CC0), with validated final-score supplementation where available. Historical shot-based expected goals: Understat.com. Football data provided by the Football-Data.org API
Seed 1613084666. Sampling noise is separate from model uncertainty. Source records and checksums are retained with the snapshot.
More about possible finishes and team ratings
Finishing position distribution
Current table
2nd · 16 pts from 7 · 5W 1D 1L · GD +18
Projected final points
65.7
80% of simulations finish between 57 and 75 points (median 66). This spread reflects match randomness given the fitted ratings, not uncertainty in the ratings themselves.
Ratings (log-scale, 0 = average)
Attack +0.50 · Defence +0.24
Remaining fixtures
All league fixturesOrdered by kickoff (UTC). Kickoff times and status: Football data provided by the Football-Data.org API; probabilities unchanged from the snapshot. Expected goals are the model's predicted goal rates, not shot-based xG.
- Exp. goals 1.46–1.30H 39%D 28%A 32%
- Exp. goals 1.88–1.15H 53%D 25%A 22%
- Exp. goals 1.74–1.24H 48%D 26%A 26%
- Exp. goals 0.83–1.67H 17%D 27%A 56%
- Exp. goals 2.04–1.10H 58%D 23%A 19%
- Exp. goals 1.54–1.34H 41%D 28%A 32%
- Exp. goals 1.28–1.36H 34%D 29%A 37%
- Exp. goals 1.74–0.95H 54%D 26%A 19%
- Exp. goals 1.83–0.82H 60%D 25%A 15%
- Exp. goals 1.18–1.51H 28%D 28%A 43%
- Exp. goals 1.06–1.44H 26%D 30%A 44%
- Exp. goals 1.57–1.32H 42%D 27%A 31%
- Exp. goals 1.64–1.26H 45%D 27%A 28%
- Exp. goals 1.52–1.42H 39%D 27%A 34%
- Exp. goals 1.41–1.54H 34%D 27%A 39%
- Exp. goals 1.34–1.67H 29%D 27%A 44%
- Exp. goals 2.04–0.68H 68%D 22%A 10%
- Exp. goals 1.62–1.28H 44%D 27%A 29%
- Exp. goals 1.76–0.87H 57%D 26%A 17%
- Exp. goals 1.01–1.50H 24%D 29%A 47%
- Exp. goals 1.84–0.97H 57%D 25%A 18%
- Exp. goals 1.36–1.33H 36%D 29%A 35%
- Exp. goals 1.69–0.85H 56%D 27%A 17%
- Exp. goals 1.37–1.42H 35%D 28%A 37%
- Exp. goals 1.83–1.30H 49%D 25%A 26%
- Exp. goals 1.16–1.42H 29%D 29%A 41%
- Exp. goals 1.66–1.05H 50%D 27%A 23%
- Exp. goals 1.87–0.90H 59%D 25%A 16%
- Exp. goals 1.20–1.61H 27%D 27%A 45%
- Exp. goals 1.58–1.19H 45%D 28%A 27%
- Exp. goals 1.70–0.88H 55%D 27%A 18%
Model factors and source records
- activeShot-quality team ratingsPremier League ratings blend 75% verified historical Understat xG with 25% goals, scaled to actual scoring using training matches only. Championship inputs remain goals. Selected on 2024/25; later-season gains are modest and uncertain.
- activeOpponent-adjusted attack & defence ratingsFitted jointly over Premier League and Championship results with ridge shrinkage.
- activeHome advantageSingle fitted coefficient, shared by all teams.
- activeRecency weighting (form)Exponential time decay on past matches; no streak bonuses.
- activeLow-score (Dixon–Coles) correctionρ fitted by profile likelihood; adjusts 0-0, 1-0, 0-1, 1-1 only.
- activePromoted-team priorsChampionship results linked to the PL scale via teams that moved divisions, shrunk toward average.
- disabledPlayer availability & injuriesNo licensed, verified player data source yet. Not part of the baseline.
- disabledRest days & fixture congestionRequires kickoff times and an estimated, tested coefficient. Off until validated.
- disabledMarket oddsNot used as an input or benchmark until timing and licence are established.
Pitchcast app engine · Results data: OpenFootball (CC0), with validated final-score supplementation where available. Historical shot-based expected goals: Understat.com. Football data provided by the Football-Data.org API
Training data through 18 Oct 2026 · 899 matches · model pc-xg-2.0.0