Premier League 2026/27
Manchester United
Results through 18 Oct 2026 · dated forecast · pc-xg-2.0.0
No player or injury effects.
Win the title
0.2%
Top-four finish
22.8%
Relegation
0.3%
Projected points
57.5
In 80% of simulated seasons, Manchester United finish with 48–66 points. That is a range of possible match outcomes, not a guarantee. Top four means league position, not guaranteed European qualification.
How this forecast works
Recorded match results inform team ratings. The remaining season is simulated 100,000 times, keeping played results fixed. The points range assumes those ratings are right; it does not include uncertainty in the ratings. No player, injury or rest-day adjustments are included.
Snapshot dated 18 Oct 2026Results through 18 Oct 2026 · no scheduled results missing as of 18 Oct 2026 · next fixtures 18 Oct 2026
- Season
- 2026/27
- Data cutoff
- 18 Oct 2026
- Source fetched
- 18 Oct 2026, 16:17 UTC
- Model run
- 18 Oct 2026, 16:17 UTC
- Simulations
- 100,000 · seed 1613084666
- Model
- pc-xg-2.0.0
Pitchcast app engine · Results data: OpenFootball (CC0), with validated final-score supplementation where available. Historical shot-based expected goals: Understat.com. Football data provided by the Football-Data.org API
Seed 1613084666. Sampling noise is separate from model uncertainty. Source records and checksums are retained with the snapshot.
More about possible finishes and team ratings
Finishing position distribution
Current table
13th · 7 pts from 7 · 1W 4D 2L · GD ±0
Projected final points
57.5
80% of simulations finish between 48 and 66 points (median 57). This spread reflects match randomness given the fitted ratings, not uncertainty in the ratings themselves.
Ratings (log-scale, 0 = average)
Attack +0.56 · Defence +0.21
Remaining fixtures
All league fixturesOrdered by kickoff (UTC). Kickoff times and status: Football data provided by the Football-Data.org API; probabilities unchanged from the snapshot. Expected goals are the model's predicted goal rates, not shot-based xG.
- Exp. goals 1.74–1.29H 47%D 26%A 27%
- Exp. goals 1.63–1.59H 38%D 26%A 36%
- Exp. goals 1.84–1.15H 52%D 25%A 22%
- Exp. goals 1.49–1.37H 39%D 28%A 33%
- Exp. goals 1.84–1.27H 49%D 25%A 25%
- Exp. goals 1.38–1.77H 29%D 26%A 46%
- Exp. goals 1.80–0.87H 58%D 26%A 17%
- Exp. goals 1.24–1.71H 26%D 27%A 47%
- Exp. goals 1.74–0.94H 55%D 26%A 19%
- Exp. goals 1.76–1.07H 52%D 26%A 22%
- Exp. goals 1.98–0.92H 61%D 24%A 16%
- Exp. goals 1.57–1.32H 42%D 27%A 31%
- Exp. goals 2.17–1.13H 60%D 22%A 18%
- Exp. goals 1.41–1.50H 34%D 28%A 38%
- Exp. goals 1.68–1.22H 47%D 27%A 26%
- Exp. goals 1.56–1.50H 38%D 27%A 35%
- Exp. goals 1.94–1.33H 50%D 24%A 25%
- Exp. goals 1.62–1.28H 44%D 27%A 29%
- Exp. goals 1.31–1.44H 33%D 28%A 39%
- Exp. goals 1.15–1.43H 29%D 29%A 42%
- Exp. goals 1.13–1.62H 25%D 28%A 47%
- Exp. goals 1.84–0.98H 56%D 25%A 18%
- Exp. goals 1.93–1.22H 53%D 25%A 23%
- Exp. goals 2.16–0.69H 70%D 20%A 10%
- Exp. goals 1.03–1.59H 23%D 28%A 49%
- Exp. goals 2.09–1.01H 61%D 23%A 16%
- Exp. goals 1.07–1.47H 26%D 29%A 45%
- Exp. goals 1.58–1.42H 40%D 27%A 33%
- Exp. goals 1.72–1.14H 50%D 27%A 24%
- Exp. goals 1.09–1.52H 26%D 29%A 46%
- Exp. goals 1.96–0.99H 59%D 24%A 17%
Model factors and source records
- activeShot-quality team ratingsPremier League ratings blend 75% verified historical Understat xG with 25% goals, scaled to actual scoring using training matches only. Championship inputs remain goals. Selected on 2024/25; later-season gains are modest and uncertain.
- activeOpponent-adjusted attack & defence ratingsFitted jointly over Premier League and Championship results with ridge shrinkage.
- activeHome advantageSingle fitted coefficient, shared by all teams.
- activeRecency weighting (form)Exponential time decay on past matches; no streak bonuses.
- activeLow-score (Dixon–Coles) correctionρ fitted by profile likelihood; adjusts 0-0, 1-0, 0-1, 1-1 only.
- activePromoted-team priorsChampionship results linked to the PL scale via teams that moved divisions, shrunk toward average.
- disabledPlayer availability & injuriesNo licensed, verified player data source yet. Not part of the baseline.
- disabledRest days & fixture congestionRequires kickoff times and an estimated, tested coefficient. Off until validated.
- disabledMarket oddsNot used as an input or benchmark until timing and licence are established.
Pitchcast app engine · Results data: OpenFootball (CC0), with validated final-score supplementation where available. Historical shot-based expected goals: Understat.com. Football data provided by the Football-Data.org API
Training data through 18 Oct 2026 · 899 matches · model pc-xg-2.0.0