Premier League 2026/27
Manchester City
Results through 18 Oct 2026 · dated forecast · pc-xg-2.0.0
No player or injury effects.
Win the title
52.3%
Top-four finish
99.0%
Relegation
0.0%
Projected points
79.5
In 80% of simulated seasons, Manchester City finish with 71–88 points. That is a range of possible match outcomes, not a guarantee. Top four means league position, not guaranteed European qualification.
0.0% means no such finish occurred in this run, not that it is impossible.
How this forecast works
Recorded match results inform team ratings. The remaining season is simulated 100,000 times, keeping played results fixed. The points range assumes those ratings are right; it does not include uncertainty in the ratings. No player, injury or rest-day adjustments are included.
Snapshot dated 18 Oct 2026Results through 18 Oct 2026 · no scheduled results missing as of 18 Oct 2026 · next fixtures 18 Oct 2026
- Season
- 2026/27
- Data cutoff
- 18 Oct 2026
- Source fetched
- 18 Oct 2026, 16:17 UTC
- Model run
- 18 Oct 2026, 16:17 UTC
- Simulations
- 100,000 · seed 1613084666
- Model
- pc-xg-2.0.0
Pitchcast app engine · Results data: OpenFootball (CC0), with validated final-score supplementation where available. Historical shot-based expected goals: Understat.com. Football data provided by the Football-Data.org API
Seed 1613084666. Sampling noise is separate from model uncertainty. Source records and checksums are retained with the snapshot.
More about possible finishes and team ratings
Finishing position distribution
Current table
1st · 21 pts from 7 · 7W 0D 0L · GD +12
Projected final points
79.5
80% of simulations finish between 71 and 88 points (median 80). This spread reflects match randomness given the fitted ratings, not uncertainty in the ratings themselves.
Ratings (log-scale, 0 = average)
Attack +0.71 · Defence +0.31
Remaining fixtures
All league fixturesOrdered by kickoff (UTC). Kickoff times and status: Football data provided by the Football-Data.org API; probabilities unchanged from the snapshot. Expected goals are the model's predicted goal rates, not shot-based xG.
- Exp. goals 1.27–1.75H 27%D 26%A 47%
- Exp. goals 1.88–1.15H 53%D 25%A 22%
- Exp. goals 1.19–1.67H 26%D 27%A 47%
- Exp. goals 2.28–0.90H 67%D 20%A 12%
- Exp. goals 1.57–1.09H 47%D 28%A 25%
- Exp. goals 2.01–1.03H 59%D 24%A 17%
- Exp. goals 1.41–1.75H 30%D 26%A 45%
- Exp. goals 2.26–1.20H 60%D 22%A 18%
- Exp. goals 2.52–0.63H 78%D 16%A 6%
- Exp. goals 1.24–2.06H 21%D 23%A 55%
- Exp. goals 1.08–1.75H 22%D 26%A 52%
- Exp. goals 2.17–0.80H 68%D 21%A 11%
- Exp. goals 1.26–1.64H 28%D 27%A 45%
- Exp. goals 2.05–0.97H 61%D 23%A 16%
- Exp. goals 1.41–1.54H 34%D 27%A 39%
- Exp. goals 1.34–1.29H 36%D 29%A 34%
- Exp. goals 1.09–1.86H 21%D 25%A 54%
- Exp. goals 0.98–1.78H 19%D 26%A 55%
- Exp. goals 2.52–1.01H 69%D 19%A 12%
- Exp. goals 0.77–2.06H 12%D 22%A 66%
- Exp. goals 2.14–0.88H 65%D 22%A 13%
- Exp. goals 0.96–1.71H 20%D 27%A 54%
- Exp. goals 1.93–1.22H 53%D 25%A 23%
- Exp. goals 1.42–1.66H 32%D 26%A 42%
- Exp. goals 2.44–0.91H 70%D 19%A 11%
- Exp. goals 1.47–1.85H 30%D 25%A 45%
- Exp. goals 2.14–1.15H 59%D 23%A 19%
- Exp. goals 1.96–1.10H 56%D 24%A 20%
- Exp. goals 0.93–1.85H 17%D 25%A 58%
- Exp. goals 2.14–1.04H 61%D 22%A 16%
- Exp. goals 1.02–1.89H 19%D 25%A 56%
Model factors and source records
- activeShot-quality team ratingsPremier League ratings blend 75% verified historical Understat xG with 25% goals, scaled to actual scoring using training matches only. Championship inputs remain goals. Selected on 2024/25; later-season gains are modest and uncertain.
- activeOpponent-adjusted attack & defence ratingsFitted jointly over Premier League and Championship results with ridge shrinkage.
- activeHome advantageSingle fitted coefficient, shared by all teams.
- activeRecency weighting (form)Exponential time decay on past matches; no streak bonuses.
- activeLow-score (Dixon–Coles) correctionρ fitted by profile likelihood; adjusts 0-0, 1-0, 0-1, 1-1 only.
- activePromoted-team priorsChampionship results linked to the PL scale via teams that moved divisions, shrunk toward average.
- disabledPlayer availability & injuriesNo licensed, verified player data source yet. Not part of the baseline.
- disabledRest days & fixture congestionRequires kickoff times and an estimated, tested coefficient. Off until validated.
- disabledMarket oddsNot used as an input or benchmark until timing and licence are established.
Pitchcast app engine · Results data: OpenFootball (CC0), with validated final-score supplementation where available. Historical shot-based expected goals: Understat.com. Football data provided by the Football-Data.org API
Training data through 18 Oct 2026 · 899 matches · model pc-xg-2.0.0