Pitchcast / Premier League 2026/27

Premier League predicted table

Projected points and finishing chances for all 20 clubs.

Results through 18 Oct 2026 · dated forecast · pc-xg-2.0.0

No player or injury effects.

Season forecast for each team
#
1	Manchester City	21 (7)	79.5 71–88	52%	99%	100%	—
2	Arsenal	15 (6)	78.5 70–87	43%	99%	100%	—
3	Brighton	16 (7)	65.7 57–75	3%	69%	88%	—
4	Liverpool	12 (7)	59.5 51–69	<1%	31%	60%	<1%
5	Chelsea	13 (7)	59.4 50–69	<1%	31%	59%	<1%
6	Manchester United	7 (7)	57.5 48–66	<1%	23%	50%	<1%
7	Brentford	10 (7)	55.9 47–65	<1%	16%	40%	1%
8	Leeds United	10 (7)	54.7 46–64	<1%	13%	33%	1%
9	Bournemouth	6 (7)	54.1 45–63	<1%	11%	30%	1%
10	Aston Villa	8 (7)	51.0 42–60	<1%	5%	16%	3%
11	Nottingham Forest	5 (6)	47.9 39–57	<1%	2%	8%	7%
12	Everton	10 (7)	46.9 38–56	—	1%	6%	8%
13	Newcastle United	8 (7)	44.4 36–53	<1%	1%	3%	16%
14	Coventry City	6 (6)	43.0 34–52	<1%	<1%	2%	22%
15	Crystal Palace	7 (7)	42.5 34–51	—	<1%	2%	25%
16	Ipswich Town	9 (7)	41.7 33–50	—	<1%	1%	28%
17	Fulham	5 (7)	40.6 32–49	<1%	<1%	1%	32%
18	Sunderland	4 (7)	39.3 31–48	—	<1%	1%	41%
19	Tottenham Hotspur	3 (6)	39.1 30–48	—	<1%	1%	42%
20	Hull City	9 (7)	34.1 27–42	—	—	<1%	73%

1Manchester City21 pts · 7 pl
Title
52%
Top 4
99%
Top 6
100%
Relegation
—
Proj. 79.5 pts (71–88)
2Arsenal15 pts · 6 pl
Title
43%
Top 4
99%
Top 6
100%
Relegation
—
Proj. 78.5 pts (70–87)
3Brighton16 pts · 7 pl
Title
3%
Top 4
69%
Top 6
88%
Relegation
—
Proj. 65.7 pts (57–75)
4Liverpool12 pts · 7 pl
Title
<1%
Top 4
31%
Top 6
60%
Relegation
<1%
Proj. 59.5 pts (51–69)
5Chelsea13 pts · 7 pl
Title
<1%
Top 4
31%
Top 6
59%
Relegation
<1%
Proj. 59.4 pts (50–69)
6Manchester United7 pts · 7 pl
Title
<1%
Top 4
23%
Top 6
50%
Relegation
<1%
Proj. 57.5 pts (48–66)
7Brentford10 pts · 7 pl
Title
<1%
Top 4
16%
Top 6
40%
Relegation
1%
Proj. 55.9 pts (47–65)
8Leeds United10 pts · 7 pl
Title
<1%
Top 4
13%
Top 6
33%
Relegation
1%
Proj. 54.7 pts (46–64)
9Bournemouth6 pts · 7 pl
Title
<1%
Top 4
11%
Top 6
30%
Relegation
1%
Proj. 54.1 pts (45–63)
10Aston Villa8 pts · 7 pl
Title
<1%
Top 4
5%
Top 6
16%
Relegation
3%
Proj. 51.0 pts (42–60)
11Nottingham Forest5 pts · 6 pl
Title
<1%
Top 4
2%
Top 6
8%
Relegation
7%
Proj. 47.9 pts (39–57)
12Everton10 pts · 7 pl
Title
—
Top 4
1%
Top 6
6%
Relegation
8%
Proj. 46.9 pts (38–56)
13Newcastle United8 pts · 7 pl
Title
<1%
Top 4
1%
Top 6
3%
Relegation
16%
Proj. 44.4 pts (36–53)
14Coventry City6 pts · 6 pl
Title
<1%
Top 4
<1%
Top 6
2%
Relegation
22%
Proj. 43.0 pts (34–52)
15Crystal Palace7 pts · 7 pl
Title
—
Top 4
<1%
Top 6
2%
Relegation
25%
Proj. 42.5 pts (34–51)
16Ipswich Town9 pts · 7 pl
Title
—
Top 4
<1%
Top 6
1%
Relegation
28%
Proj. 41.7 pts (33–50)
17Fulham5 pts · 7 pl
Title
<1%
Top 4
<1%
Top 6
1%
Relegation
32%
Proj. 40.6 pts (32–49)
18Sunderland4 pts · 7 pl
Title
—
Top 4
<1%
Top 6
1%
Relegation
41%
Proj. 39.3 pts (31–48)
19Tottenham Hotspur3 pts · 6 pl
Title
—
Top 4
<1%
Top 6
1%
Relegation
42%
Proj. 39.1 pts (30–48)
20Hull City9 pts · 7 pl
Title
—
Top 4
—
Top 6
<1%
Relegation
73%
Proj. 34.1 pts (27–42)

How this forecast works

Recorded match results inform team ratings. The remaining season is simulated 100,000 times, keeping played results fixed. The points range assumes those ratings are right; it does not include uncertainty in the ratings. No player, injury or rest-day adjustments are included.

Snapshot dated 18 Oct 2026Results through 18 Oct 2026 · no scheduled results missing as of 18 Oct 2026 · next fixtures 18 Oct 2026

Season: 2026/27
Data cutoff: 18 Oct 2026
Source fetched: 18 Oct 2026, 16:17 UTC
Model run: 18 Oct 2026, 16:17 UTC
Simulations: 100,000 · seed 1613084666
Model: pc-xg-2.0.0

Pitchcast app engine · Results data: OpenFootball (CC0), with validated final-score supplementation where available. Historical shot-based expected goals: Understat.com. Football data provided by the Football-Data.org API

Seed 1613084666. Sampling noise is separate from model uncertainty. Source records and checksums are retained with the snapshot.

Methodology Track record

Premier League predicted table

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