Premier League 2026/27
Bournemouth
Results through 18 Oct 2026 · dated forecast · pc-xg-2.0.0
No player or injury effects.
Win the title
0.1%
Top-four finish
10.7%
Relegation
1.1%
Projected points
54.1
In 80% of simulated seasons, Bournemouth finish with 45–63 points. That is a range of possible match outcomes, not a guarantee. Top four means league position, not guaranteed European qualification.
How this forecast works
Recorded match results inform team ratings. The remaining season is simulated 100,000 times, keeping played results fixed. The points range assumes those ratings are right; it does not include uncertainty in the ratings. No player, injury or rest-day adjustments are included.
Snapshot dated 18 Oct 2026Results through 18 Oct 2026 · no scheduled results missing as of 18 Oct 2026 · next fixtures 18 Oct 2026
- Season
- 2026/27
- Data cutoff
- 18 Oct 2026
- Source fetched
- 18 Oct 2026, 16:17 UTC
- Model run
- 18 Oct 2026, 16:17 UTC
- Simulations
- 100,000 · seed 1613084666
- Model
- pc-xg-2.0.0
Pitchcast app engine · Results data: OpenFootball (CC0), with validated final-score supplementation where available. Historical shot-based expected goals: Understat.com. Football data provided by the Football-Data.org API
Seed 1613084666. Sampling noise is separate from model uncertainty. Source records and checksums are retained with the snapshot.
More about possible finishes and team ratings
Finishing position distribution
Current table
15th · 6 pts from 7 · 1W 3D 3L · GD −4
Projected final points
54.1
80% of simulations finish between 45 and 63 points (median 54). This spread reflects match randomness given the fitted ratings, not uncertainty in the ratings themselves.
Ratings (log-scale, 0 = average)
Attack +0.51 · Defence +0.16
Remaining fixtures
All league fixturesOrdered by kickoff (UTC). Kickoff times and status: Football data provided by the Football-Data.org API; probabilities unchanged from the snapshot. Expected goals are the model's predicted goal rates, not shot-based xG.
- Exp. goals 1.74–1.29H 47%D 26%A 27%
- Exp. goals 1.64–1.19H 46%D 27%A 26%
- Exp. goals 1.08–1.51H 26%D 29%A 46%
- Exp. goals 1.67–1.13H 49%D 27%A 24%
- Exp. goals 1.27–1.52H 30%D 28%A 42%
- Exp. goals 1.54–1.34H 41%D 28%A 32%
- Exp. goals 2.05–0.73H 67%D 22%A 11%
- Exp. goals 1.83–0.89H 58%D 25%A 17%
- Exp. goals 1.71–0.91H 55%D 27%A 19%
- Exp. goals 1.14–1.45H 28%D 29%A 43%
- Exp. goals 1.30–1.62H 29%D 27%A 44%
- Exp. goals 1.75–1.21H 49%D 26%A 25%
- Exp. goals 1.64–1.26H 45%D 27%A 28%
- Exp. goals 1.85–0.89H 59%D 25%A 16%
- Exp. goals 1.38–1.37H 36%D 29%A 35%
- Exp. goals 1.86–1.04H 55%D 25%A 20%
- Exp. goals 1.46–1.34H 39%D 28%A 33%
- Exp. goals 1.48–1.43H 37%D 28%A 35%
- Exp. goals 1.99–1.06H 58%D 24%A 18%
- Exp. goals 1.12–1.40H 29%D 30%A 42%
- Exp. goals 1.77–0.93H 56%D 26%A 18%
- Exp. goals 2.06–1.18H 56%D 23%A 20%
- Exp. goals 1.63–1.43H 41%D 27%A 32%
- Exp. goals 1.42–1.66H 32%D 26%A 42%
- Exp. goals 1.25–1.43H 32%D 29%A 40%
- Exp. goals 1.09–1.50H 26%D 29%A 45%
- Exp. goals 0.89–1.68H 18%D 27%A 55%
- Exp. goals 1.58–1.42H 40%D 27%A 33%
- Exp. goals 1.18–1.54H 28%D 28%A 44%
- Exp. goals 1.84–1.39H 47%D 25%A 28%
- Exp. goals 1.57–1.31H 42%D 28%A 30%
Model factors and source records
- activeShot-quality team ratingsPremier League ratings blend 75% verified historical Understat xG with 25% goals, scaled to actual scoring using training matches only. Championship inputs remain goals. Selected on 2024/25; later-season gains are modest and uncertain.
- activeOpponent-adjusted attack & defence ratingsFitted jointly over Premier League and Championship results with ridge shrinkage.
- activeHome advantageSingle fitted coefficient, shared by all teams.
- activeRecency weighting (form)Exponential time decay on past matches; no streak bonuses.
- activeLow-score (Dixon–Coles) correctionρ fitted by profile likelihood; adjusts 0-0, 1-0, 0-1, 1-1 only.
- activePromoted-team priorsChampionship results linked to the PL scale via teams that moved divisions, shrunk toward average.
- disabledPlayer availability & injuriesNo licensed, verified player data source yet. Not part of the baseline.
- disabledRest days & fixture congestionRequires kickoff times and an estimated, tested coefficient. Off until validated.
- disabledMarket oddsNot used as an input or benchmark until timing and licence are established.
Pitchcast app engine · Results data: OpenFootball (CC0), with validated final-score supplementation where available. Historical shot-based expected goals: Understat.com. Football data provided by the Football-Data.org API
Training data through 18 Oct 2026 · 899 matches · model pc-xg-2.0.0