Premier League 2026/27
Chelsea
Results through 18 Oct 2026 · dated forecast · pc-xg-2.0.0
No player or injury effects.
Win the title
0.5%
Top-four finish
31.0%
Relegation
0.1%
Projected points
59.4
In 80% of simulated seasons, Chelsea finish with 50–69 points. That is a range of possible match outcomes, not a guarantee. Top four means league position, not guaranteed European qualification.
How this forecast works
Recorded match results inform team ratings. The remaining season is simulated 100,000 times, keeping played results fixed. The points range assumes those ratings are right; it does not include uncertainty in the ratings. No player, injury or rest-day adjustments are included.
Snapshot dated 18 Oct 2026Results through 18 Oct 2026 · no scheduled results missing as of 18 Oct 2026 · next fixtures 18 Oct 2026
- Season
- 2026/27
- Data cutoff
- 18 Oct 2026
- Source fetched
- 18 Oct 2026, 16:17 UTC
- Model run
- 18 Oct 2026, 16:17 UTC
- Simulations
- 100,000 · seed 1613084666
- Model
- pc-xg-2.0.0
Pitchcast app engine · Results data: OpenFootball (CC0), with validated final-score supplementation where available. Historical shot-based expected goals: Understat.com. Football data provided by the Football-Data.org API
Seed 1613084666. Sampling noise is separate from model uncertainty. Source records and checksums are retained with the snapshot.
More about possible finishes and team ratings
Finishing position distribution
Current table
4th · 13 pts from 7 · 4W 1D 2L · GD +4
Projected final points
59.4
80% of simulations finish between 50 and 69 points (median 59). This spread reflects match randomness given the fitted ratings, not uncertainty in the ratings themselves.
Ratings (log-scale, 0 = average)
Attack +0.54 · Defence +0.05
Remaining fixtures
All league fixturesOrdered by kickoff (UTC). Kickoff times and status: Football data provided by the Football-Data.org API; probabilities unchanged from the snapshot. Expected goals are the model's predicted goal rates, not shot-based xG.
- Exp. goals 1.83–1.04H 55%D 25%A 20%
- Exp. goals 1.63–1.59H 38%D 26%A 36%
- Exp. goals 1.32–1.59H 30%D 27%A 42%
- Exp. goals 1.69–1.33H 45%D 26%A 29%
- Exp. goals 1.54–1.41H 39%D 27%A 34%
- Exp. goals 2.05–1.18H 56%D 23%A 20%
- Exp. goals 1.65–1.43H 42%D 26%A 32%
- Exp. goals 2.26–1.20H 60%D 22%A 18%
- Exp. goals 1.80–1.35H 47%D 26%A 27%
- Exp. goals 1.24–1.44H 31%D 29%A 40%
- Exp. goals 1.21–1.56H 28%D 28%A 44%
- Exp. goals 2.12–1.31H 55%D 23%A 22%
- Exp. goals 1.44–1.68H 32%D 26%A 42%
- Exp. goals 1.94–1.08H 56%D 24%A 19%
- Exp. goals 1.63–1.38H 42%D 27%A 31%
- Exp. goals 1.72–1.26H 47%D 26%A 27%
- Exp. goals 1.94–1.33H 50%D 24%A 25%
- Exp. goals 1.61–1.74H 35%D 25%A 40%
- Exp. goals 1.91–0.99H 58%D 25%A 18%
- Exp. goals 1.65–1.47H 41%D 26%A 33%
- Exp. goals 1.76–1.02H 53%D 26%A 20%
- Exp. goals 1.12–1.67H 24%D 27%A 49%
- Exp. goals 0.99–1.73H 20%D 26%A 53%
- Exp. goals 1.92–1.16H 54%D 25%A 22%
- Exp. goals 1.83–1.30H 49%D 25%A 26%
- Exp. goals 1.47–1.85H 30%D 25%A 45%
- Exp. goals 1.75–1.35H 46%D 26%A 28%
- Exp. goals 1.27–1.49H 31%D 28%A 41%
- Exp. goals 1.80–1.14H 52%D 26%A 23%
- Exp. goals 1.84–1.39H 47%D 25%A 28%
- Exp. goals 1.80–1.49H 44%D 25%A 31%
Model factors and source records
- activeShot-quality team ratingsPremier League ratings blend 75% verified historical Understat xG with 25% goals, scaled to actual scoring using training matches only. Championship inputs remain goals. Selected on 2024/25; later-season gains are modest and uncertain.
- activeOpponent-adjusted attack & defence ratingsFitted jointly over Premier League and Championship results with ridge shrinkage.
- activeHome advantageSingle fitted coefficient, shared by all teams.
- activeRecency weighting (form)Exponential time decay on past matches; no streak bonuses.
- activeLow-score (Dixon–Coles) correctionρ fitted by profile likelihood; adjusts 0-0, 1-0, 0-1, 1-1 only.
- activePromoted-team priorsChampionship results linked to the PL scale via teams that moved divisions, shrunk toward average.
- disabledPlayer availability & injuriesNo licensed, verified player data source yet. Not part of the baseline.
- disabledRest days & fixture congestionRequires kickoff times and an estimated, tested coefficient. Off until validated.
- disabledMarket oddsNot used as an input or benchmark until timing and licence are established.
Pitchcast app engine · Results data: OpenFootball (CC0), with validated final-score supplementation where available. Historical shot-based expected goals: Understat.com. Football data provided by the Football-Data.org API
Training data through 18 Oct 2026 · 899 matches · model pc-xg-2.0.0