Premier League 2026/27
Everton
Results through 18 Oct 2026 · dated forecast · pc-xg-2.0.0
No player or injury effects.
Win the title
0.0%
Top-four finish
1.3%
Relegation
8.4%
Projected points
46.9
In 80% of simulated seasons, Everton finish with 38–56 points. That is a range of possible match outcomes, not a guarantee. Top four means league position, not guaranteed European qualification.
0.0% means no such finish occurred in this run, not that it is impossible.
How this forecast works
Recorded match results inform team ratings. The remaining season is simulated 100,000 times, keeping played results fixed. The points range assumes those ratings are right; it does not include uncertainty in the ratings. No player, injury or rest-day adjustments are included.
Snapshot dated 18 Oct 2026Results through 18 Oct 2026 · no scheduled results missing as of 18 Oct 2026 · next fixtures 18 Oct 2026
- Season
- 2026/27
- Data cutoff
- 18 Oct 2026
- Source fetched
- 18 Oct 2026, 16:17 UTC
- Model run
- 18 Oct 2026, 16:17 UTC
- Simulations
- 100,000 · seed 1613084666
- Model
- pc-xg-2.0.0
Pitchcast app engine · Results data: OpenFootball (CC0), with validated final-score supplementation where available. Historical shot-based expected goals: Understat.com. Football data provided by the Football-Data.org API
Seed 1613084666. Sampling noise is separate from model uncertainty. Source records and checksums are retained with the snapshot.
More about possible finishes and team ratings
Finishing position distribution
Current table
8th · 10 pts from 7 · 2W 4D 1L · GD +1
Projected final points
46.9
80% of simulations finish between 38 and 56 points (median 47). This spread reflects match randomness given the fitted ratings, not uncertainty in the ratings themselves.
Ratings (log-scale, 0 = average)
Attack +0.23 · Defence +0.11
Remaining fixtures
All league fixturesOrdered by kickoff (UTC). Kickoff times and status: Football data provided by the Football-Data.org API; probabilities unchanged from the snapshot. Expected goals are the model's predicted goal rates, not shot-based xG.
- Exp. goals 1.94–0.67H 66%D 23%A 11%
- Exp. goals 1.53–1.28H 42%D 28%A 30%
- Exp. goals 1.29–0.97H 42%D 31%A 26%
- Exp. goals 1.73–1.08H 51%D 27%A 22%
- Exp. goals 1.21–1.36H 32%D 30%A 39%
- Exp. goals 1.56–1.08H 47%D 28%A 25%
- Exp. goals 1.41–1.10H 42%D 30%A 28%
- Exp. goals 1.74–0.95H 54%D 26%A 19%
- Exp. goals 1.46–1.03H 45%D 29%A 25%
- Exp. goals 1.43–1.02H 45%D 30%A 25%
- Exp. goals 1.08–1.75H 22%D 26%A 52%
- Exp. goals 1.54–1.02H 48%D 29%A 23%
- Exp. goals 1.32–1.28H 36%D 29%A 34%
- Exp. goals 1.18–1.06H 37%D 32%A 31%
- Exp. goals 1.32–1.41H 34%D 29%A 38%
- Exp. goals 1.66–0.99H 52%D 27%A 21%
- Exp. goals 1.56–1.25H 43%D 28%A 29%
- Exp. goals 1.24–1.26H 34%D 30%A 35%
- Exp. goals 1.25–1.17H 37%D 31%A 33%
- Exp. goals 1.27–1.19H 37%D 30%A 33%
- Exp. goals 2.14–0.88H 65%D 22%A 13%
- Exp. goals 1.84–0.98H 56%D 25%A 18%
- Exp. goals 1.34–0.99H 43%D 31%A 26%
- Exp. goals 1.37–1.23H 39%D 29%A 32%
- Exp. goals 1.25–1.43H 32%D 29%A 40%
- Exp. goals 1.16–1.42H 29%D 29%A 41%
- Exp. goals 1.35–1.15H 40%D 30%A 30%
- Exp. goals 1.56–0.77H 55%D 28%A 17%
- Exp. goals 1.80–1.14H 52%D 26%A 23%
- Exp. goals 0.83–1.58H 18%D 28%A 54%
- Exp. goals 1.15–1.14H 34%D 32%A 34%
Model factors and source records
- activeShot-quality team ratingsPremier League ratings blend 75% verified historical Understat xG with 25% goals, scaled to actual scoring using training matches only. Championship inputs remain goals. Selected on 2024/25; later-season gains are modest and uncertain.
- activeOpponent-adjusted attack & defence ratingsFitted jointly over Premier League and Championship results with ridge shrinkage.
- activeHome advantageSingle fitted coefficient, shared by all teams.
- activeRecency weighting (form)Exponential time decay on past matches; no streak bonuses.
- activeLow-score (Dixon–Coles) correctionρ fitted by profile likelihood; adjusts 0-0, 1-0, 0-1, 1-1 only.
- activePromoted-team priorsChampionship results linked to the PL scale via teams that moved divisions, shrunk toward average.
- disabledPlayer availability & injuriesNo licensed, verified player data source yet. Not part of the baseline.
- disabledRest days & fixture congestionRequires kickoff times and an estimated, tested coefficient. Off until validated.
- disabledMarket oddsNot used as an input or benchmark until timing and licence are established.
Pitchcast app engine · Results data: OpenFootball (CC0), with validated final-score supplementation where available. Historical shot-based expected goals: Understat.com. Football data provided by the Football-Data.org API
Training data through 18 Oct 2026 · 899 matches · model pc-xg-2.0.0