Premier League 2026/27
Coventry City
Results through 18 Oct 2026 · dated forecast · pc-xg-2.0.0
No player or injury effects.
Win the title
0.0%
Top-four finish
0.3%
Relegation
22.2%
Projected points
43.0
In 80% of simulated seasons, Coventry City finish with 34–52 points. That is a range of possible match outcomes, not a guarantee. Top four means league position, not guaranteed European qualification.
How this forecast works
Recorded match results inform team ratings. The remaining season is simulated 100,000 times, keeping played results fixed. The points range assumes those ratings are right; it does not include uncertainty in the ratings. No player, injury or rest-day adjustments are included.
Snapshot dated 18 Oct 2026Results through 18 Oct 2026 · no scheduled results missing as of 18 Oct 2026 · next fixtures 18 Oct 2026
- Season
- 2026/27
- Data cutoff
- 18 Oct 2026
- Source fetched
- 18 Oct 2026, 16:17 UTC
- Model run
- 18 Oct 2026, 16:17 UTC
- Simulations
- 100,000 · seed 1613084666
- Model
- pc-xg-2.0.0
Pitchcast app engine · Results data: OpenFootball (CC0), with validated final-score supplementation where available. Historical shot-based expected goals: Understat.com. Football data provided by the Football-Data.org API
Seed 1613084666. Sampling noise is separate from model uncertainty. Source records and checksums are retained with the snapshot.
More about possible finishes and team ratings
Finishing position distribution
Current table
16th · 6 pts from 6 · 2W 0D 4L · GD −6
Projected final points
43.0
80% of simulations finish between 34 and 52 points (median 43). This spread reflects match randomness given the fitted ratings, not uncertainty in the ratings themselves.
Ratings (log-scale, 0 = average)
Attack +0.12 · Defence +0.13
Remaining fixtures
All league fixturesOrdered by kickoff (UTC). Kickoff times and status: Football data provided by the Football-Data.org API; probabilities unchanged from the snapshot. Expected goals are the model's predicted goal rates, not shot-based xG.
- Exp. goals 1.18–0.98H 39%D 33%A 29%
- Exp. goals 1.25–1.07H 39%D 31%A 30%
- Exp. goals 1.27–1.00H 41%D 31%A 27%
- Exp. goals 1.29–0.97H 42%D 31%A 26%
- Exp. goals 1.34–1.09H 41%D 30%A 29%
- Exp. goals 1.51–0.91H 50%D 29%A 21%
- Exp. goals 1.25–0.91H 42%D 32%A 26%
- Exp. goals 1.80–0.87H 58%D 26%A 17%
- Exp. goals 1.18–1.25H 33%D 31%A 36%
- Exp. goals 1.71–0.91H 55%D 27%A 19%
- Exp. goals 1.24–1.44H 31%D 29%A 40%
- Exp. goals 1.18–1.38H 31%D 30%A 40%
- Exp. goals 1.62–0.88H 53%D 28%A 19%
- Exp. goals 1.12–1.02H 36%D 33%A 31%
- Exp. goals 1.18–1.06H 37%D 32%A 31%
- Exp. goals 1.22–1.04H 39%D 32%A 30%
- Exp. goals 1.11–1.23H 31%D 31%A 37%
- Exp. goals 1.34–1.10H 41%D 30%A 29%
- Exp. goals 1.08–1.32H 29%D 31%A 41%
- Exp. goals 1.69–0.97H 53%D 27%A 20%
- Exp. goals 1.12–1.40H 29%D 30%A 42%
- Exp. goals 1.76–1.02H 53%D 26%A 20%
- Exp. goals 0.96–1.71H 20%D 27%A 54%
- Exp. goals 1.69–0.85H 56%D 27%A 17%
- Exp. goals 0.74–1.54H 16%D 28%A 55%
- Exp. goals 0.92–1.13H 28%D 33%A 39%
- Exp. goals 1.53–0.96H 49%D 29%A 22%
- Exp. goals 1.07–1.47H 26%D 29%A 45%
- Exp. goals 1.49–1.14H 44%D 29%A 27%
- Exp. goals 1.20–0.96H 40%D 32%A 28%
- Exp. goals 1.31–1.03H 42%D 31%A 28%
- Exp. goals 1.13–1.16H 33%D 32%A 35%
Model factors and source records
- activeShot-quality team ratingsPremier League ratings blend 75% verified historical Understat xG with 25% goals, scaled to actual scoring using training matches only. Championship inputs remain goals. Selected on 2024/25; later-season gains are modest and uncertain.
- activeOpponent-adjusted attack & defence ratingsFitted jointly over Premier League and Championship results with ridge shrinkage.
- activeHome advantageSingle fitted coefficient, shared by all teams.
- activeRecency weighting (form)Exponential time decay on past matches; no streak bonuses.
- activeLow-score (Dixon–Coles) correctionρ fitted by profile likelihood; adjusts 0-0, 1-0, 0-1, 1-1 only.
- activePromoted-team priorsChampionship results linked to the PL scale via teams that moved divisions, shrunk toward average.
- disabledPlayer availability & injuriesNo licensed, verified player data source yet. Not part of the baseline.
- disabledRest days & fixture congestionRequires kickoff times and an estimated, tested coefficient. Off until validated.
- disabledMarket oddsNot used as an input or benchmark until timing and licence are established.
Pitchcast app engine · Results data: OpenFootball (CC0), with validated final-score supplementation where available. Historical shot-based expected goals: Understat.com. Football data provided by the Football-Data.org API
Training data through 18 Oct 2026 · 899 matches · model pc-xg-2.0.0