Premier League 2026/27
Sunderland
Results through 18 Oct 2026 · dated forecast · pc-xg-2.0.0
No player or injury effects.
Win the title
0.0%
Top-four finish
0.1%
Relegation
40.7%
Projected points
39.3
In 80% of simulated seasons, Sunderland finish with 31–48 points. That is a range of possible match outcomes, not a guarantee. Top four means league position, not guaranteed European qualification.
0.0% means no such finish occurred in this run, not that it is impossible.
How this forecast works
Recorded match results inform team ratings. The remaining season is simulated 100,000 times, keeping played results fixed. The points range assumes those ratings are right; it does not include uncertainty in the ratings. No player, injury or rest-day adjustments are included.
Snapshot dated 18 Oct 2026Results through 18 Oct 2026 · no scheduled results missing as of 18 Oct 2026 · next fixtures 18 Oct 2026
- Season
- 2026/27
- Data cutoff
- 18 Oct 2026
- Source fetched
- 18 Oct 2026, 16:17 UTC
- Model run
- 18 Oct 2026, 16:17 UTC
- Simulations
- 100,000 · seed 1613084666
- Model
- pc-xg-2.0.0
Pitchcast app engine · Results data: OpenFootball (CC0), with validated final-score supplementation where available. Historical shot-based expected goals: Understat.com. Football data provided by the Football-Data.org API
Seed 1613084666. Sampling noise is separate from model uncertainty. Source records and checksums are retained with the snapshot.
More about possible finishes and team ratings
Finishing position distribution
Current table
19th · 4 pts from 7 · 1W 1D 5L · GD −8
Projected final points
39.3
80% of simulations finish between 31 and 48 points (median 39). This spread reflects match randomness given the fitted ratings, not uncertainty in the ratings themselves.
Ratings (log-scale, 0 = average)
Attack +0.17 · Defence +0.03
Remaining fixtures
All league fixturesOrdered by kickoff (UTC). Kickoff times and status: Football data provided by the Football-Data.org API; probabilities unchanged from the snapshot. Expected goals are the model's predicted goal rates, not shot-based xG.
- Exp. goals 1.17–1.36H 31%D 30%A 40%
- Exp. goals 1.27–1.00H 41%D 31%A 27%
- Exp. goals 1.32–1.59H 30%D 27%A 42%
- Exp. goals 1.68–1.02H 51%D 27%A 22%
- Exp. goals 1.27–1.06H 39%D 31%A 29%
- Exp. goals 1.79–0.93H 56%D 26%A 18%
- Exp. goals 1.64–1.20H 46%D 27%A 27%
- Exp. goals 1.19–1.28H 33%D 30%A 37%
- Exp. goals 1.42–1.21H 40%D 29%A 30%
- Exp. goals 1.43–1.02H 45%D 30%A 25%
- Exp. goals 1.98–0.92H 61%D 24%A 16%
- Exp. goals 1.47–0.83H 51%D 30%A 20%
- Exp. goals 1.14–1.46H 28%D 29%A 43%
- Exp. goals 1.94–1.08H 56%D 24%A 19%
- Exp. goals 1.22–1.04H 39%D 32%A 30%
- Exp. goals 1.30–1.04H 41%D 31%A 28%
- Exp. goals 1.25–1.38H 32%D 29%A 38%
- Exp. goals 1.01–1.20H 29%D 32%A 39%
- Exp. goals 1.25–1.17H 37%D 31%A 33%
- Exp. goals 1.48–1.16H 43%D 29%A 28%
- Exp. goals 1.13–1.62H 25%D 28%A 47%
- Exp. goals 1.25–1.52H 30%D 28%A 42%
- Exp. goals 2.08–0.64H 70%D 21%A 9%
- Exp. goals 1.32–1.01H 42%D 31%A 27%
- Exp. goals 1.45–1.09H 44%D 29%A 27%
- Exp. goals 1.57–0.98H 50%D 28%A 22%
- Exp. goals 1.47–1.34H 39%D 28%A 33%
- Exp. goals 1.87–0.90H 59%D 25%A 16%
- Exp. goals 1.18–1.54H 28%D 28%A 44%
- Exp. goals 1.66–0.96H 52%D 27%A 20%
- Exp. goals 1.02–1.89H 19%D 25%A 56%
Model factors and source records
- activeShot-quality team ratingsPremier League ratings blend 75% verified historical Understat xG with 25% goals, scaled to actual scoring using training matches only. Championship inputs remain goals. Selected on 2024/25; later-season gains are modest and uncertain.
- activeOpponent-adjusted attack & defence ratingsFitted jointly over Premier League and Championship results with ridge shrinkage.
- activeHome advantageSingle fitted coefficient, shared by all teams.
- activeRecency weighting (form)Exponential time decay on past matches; no streak bonuses.
- activeLow-score (Dixon–Coles) correctionρ fitted by profile likelihood; adjusts 0-0, 1-0, 0-1, 1-1 only.
- activePromoted-team priorsChampionship results linked to the PL scale via teams that moved divisions, shrunk toward average.
- disabledPlayer availability & injuriesNo licensed, verified player data source yet. Not part of the baseline.
- disabledRest days & fixture congestionRequires kickoff times and an estimated, tested coefficient. Off until validated.
- disabledMarket oddsNot used as an input or benchmark until timing and licence are established.
Pitchcast app engine · Results data: OpenFootball (CC0), with validated final-score supplementation where available. Historical shot-based expected goals: Understat.com. Football data provided by the Football-Data.org API
Training data through 18 Oct 2026 · 899 matches · model pc-xg-2.0.0