Pitchcast

Premier League 2026/27

Fixtures & match probabilities

Probabilities come from the same score model used for the season simulation. "Exp. goals" are the model's predicted goal rates, not shot-based xG. Completed matches show an archived forecast only if it was actually published before kickoff.

Snapshot dated 18 Oct 2026Results through 18 Oct 2026 · no scheduled results missing as of 18 Oct 2026 · next fixtures 18 Oct 2026

Season
2026/27
Data cutoff
18 Oct 2026
Source fetched
18 Oct 2026, 16:17 UTC
Model run
18 Oct 2026, 16:17 UTC
Simulations
100,000 · seed 1613084666
Model
pc-xg-2.0.0

Kickoff times (UTC) and status: Football data provided by the Football-Data.org API, fetched 18 Oct 2026. Schedule used at run time. Probabilities are unchanged from the snapshot with data cutoff 2026-10-18.

  • 18 Oct 2026, 15:30 UTC

    Nottingham Forest
    Arsenal
    H 21%D 29%A 50%
    Likeliest scores:1–1 14%0–1 12%0–0 10%0–2 10%1–2 9%Exp. goals 0.91–1.51

  • 19 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC

    Tottenham Hotspur
    Coventry City
    H 39%D 33%A 29%
    Likeliest scores:1–1 15%0–0 13%1–0 12%0–1 10%2–0 8%Exp. goals 1.18–0.98

  • 23 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC

    Ipswich Town
    Nottingham Forest
    H 30%D 31%A 39%
    Likeliest scores:1–1 15%0–0 11%0–1 10%1–0 9%1–2 8%Exp. goals 1.09–1.26

  • 24 Oct 2026, 11:30 UTC

    Aston Villa
    Manchester City
    H 27%D 26%A 47%
    Likeliest scores:1–1 12%1–2 9%0–2 7%0–1 7%2–1 7%Exp. goals 1.27–1.75

  • 24 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC

    Arsenal
    Everton
    H 66%D 23%A 11%
    Likeliest scores:2–0 14%1–0 13%1–1 11%2–1 9%3–0 9%Exp. goals 1.94–0.67

  • 24 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC

    Coventry City
    Fulham
    H 39%D 31%A 30%
    Likeliest scores:1–1 15%0–0 11%1–0 11%0–1 9%2–1 8%Exp. goals 1.25–1.07

  • 24 Oct 2026, 16:30 UTC

    Chelsea
    Tottenham Hotspur
    H 55%D 25%A 20%
    Likeliest scores:1–1 12%2–1 10%2–0 10%1–0 9%0–0 7%Exp. goals 1.83–1.04

  • 25 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC

    Crystal Palace
    Newcastle United
    H 41%D 27%A 32%
    Likeliest scores:1–1 12%2–1 9%1–2 8%1–0 6%2–2 6%Exp. goals 1.61–1.42

  • 25 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC

    Hull City
    Brentford
    H 20%D 27%A 53%
    Likeliest scores:1–1 13%0–1 11%0–2 10%1–2 10%0–0 9%Exp. goals 0.94–1.66

  • 25 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC

    Liverpool
    Brighton
    H 39%D 28%A 32%
    Likeliest scores:1–1 14%2–1 9%0–0 8%1–0 8%1–2 8%Exp. goals 1.46–1.30

  • 25 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC

    Manchester United
    Bournemouth
    H 47%D 26%A 27%
    Likeliest scores:1–1 12%2–1 9%2–0 7%1–0 7%1–2 7%Exp. goals 1.74–1.29

  • 25 Oct 2026, 16:30 UTC

    Sunderland
    Leeds United
    H 31%D 30%A 40%
    Likeliest scores:1–1 14%0–0 10%0–1 9%1–2 9%1–0 8%Exp. goals 1.17–1.36

  • 31 Oct 2026, 12:30 UTC

    Chelsea
    Manchester United
    H 38%D 26%A 36%
    Likeliest scores:1–1 12%2–1 8%1–2 8%2–2 7%2–0 5%Exp. goals 1.63–1.59

  • 31 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC

    Bournemouth
    Leeds United
    H 46%D 27%A 26%
    Likeliest scores:1–1 13%2–1 9%1–0 8%2–0 8%0–0 7%Exp. goals 1.64–1.19

  • 31 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC

    Brentford
    Nottingham Forest
    H 47%D 27%A 26%
    Likeliest scores:1–1 13%2–1 9%1–0 8%2–0 8%0–0 7%Exp. goals 1.65–1.19

  • 31 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC

    Coventry City
    Sunderland
    H 41%D 31%A 27%
    Likeliest scores:1–1 15%0–0 12%1–0 12%0–1 9%2–0 8%Exp. goals 1.27–1.00

  • 31 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC

    Hull City
    Ipswich Town
    H 31%D 33%A 36%
    Likeliest scores:1–1 15%0–0 14%0–1 12%1–0 11%0–2 7%Exp. goals 0.99–1.10

  • 31 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC

    Manchester City
    Brighton
    H 53%D 25%A 22%
    Likeliest scores:1–1 12%2–1 10%2–0 8%1–0 8%3–1 6%Exp. goals 1.88–1.15

  • 31 Oct 2026, 17:30 UTC

    Tottenham Hotspur
    Crystal Palace
    H 41%D 30%A 30%
    Likeliest scores:1–1 14%0–0 10%1–0 10%2–1 9%0–1 8%Exp. goals 1.37–1.13

  • 31 Oct 2026, 20:00 UTC

    Aston Villa
    Fulham
    H 49%D 27%A 24%
    Likeliest scores:1–1 13%2–1 10%1–0 9%2–0 9%0–0 8%Exp. goals 1.66–1.10

  • 1 Nov 2026, 16:30 UTC

    Liverpool
    Arsenal
    H 25%D 30%A 45%
    Likeliest scores:1–1 14%0–1 11%0–0 10%1–2 9%0–2 9%Exp. goals 1.03–1.44

  • 2 Nov 2026, 20:00 UTC

    Newcastle United
    Everton
    H 42%D 28%A 30%
    Likeliest scores:1–1 13%2–1 9%1–0 8%1–2 8%0–0 8%Exp. goals 1.53–1.28

  • 6 Nov 2026, 20:00 UTC

    Everton
    Coventry City
    H 42%D 31%A 26%
    Likeliest scores:1–1 15%0–0 12%1–0 12%2–0 9%0–1 8%Exp. goals 1.29–0.97

  • 7 Nov 2026, 12:30 UTC

    Leeds United
    Tottenham Hotspur
    H 51%D 28%A 21%
    Likeliest scores:1–1 13%1–0 12%2–0 10%0–0 10%2–1 9%Exp. goals 1.56–0.92

  • 7 Nov 2026, 15:00 UTC

    Arsenal
    Hull City
    H 77%D 17%A 5%
    Likeliest scores:2–0 16%1–0 14%3–0 12%2–1 8%1–1 8%Exp. goals 2.27–0.48

  • 7 Nov 2026, 15:00 UTC

    Fulham
    Newcastle United
    H 42%D 27%A 31%
    Likeliest scores:1–1 13%2–1 9%1–2 8%1–0 7%0–0 7%Exp. goals 1.58–1.33

  • 7 Nov 2026, 17:30 UTC

    Nottingham Forest
    Manchester City
    H 26%D 27%A 47%
    Likeliest scores:1–1 13%1–2 10%0–1 8%0–2 8%0–0 7%Exp. goals 1.19–1.67

  • 8 Nov 2026, 14:00 UTC

    Brighton
    Brentford
    H 48%D 26%A 26%
    Likeliest scores:1–1 12%2–1 10%2–0 8%1–0 7%1–2 7%Exp. goals 1.74–1.24

  • 8 Nov 2026, 14:00 UTC

    Crystal Palace
    Liverpool
    H 29%D 28%A 43%
    Likeliest scores:1–1 13%1–2 9%0–1 8%0–0 8%2–1 7%Exp. goals 1.25–1.54

  • 8 Nov 2026, 14:00 UTC

    Ipswich Town
    Bournemouth
    H 26%D 29%A 46%
    Likeliest scores:1–1 14%0–1 10%1–2 9%0–0 9%0–2 9%Exp. goals 1.08–1.51

  • 8 Nov 2026, 14:00 UTC

    Sunderland
    Chelsea
    H 30%D 27%A 42%
    Likeliest scores:1–1 13%1–2 9%2–1 8%0–1 7%0–2 7%Exp. goals 1.32–1.59

  • 8 Nov 2026, 16:30 UTC

    Manchester United
    Aston Villa
    H 52%D 25%A 22%
    Likeliest scores:1–1 12%2–1 10%2–0 8%1–0 8%0–0 6%Exp. goals 1.84–1.15

  • 21 Nov 2026, 12:30 UTC

    Manchester City
    Fulham
    H 67%D 20%A 12%
    Likeliest scores:2–0 11%2–1 10%1–1 10%1–0 8%3–0 8%Exp. goals 2.28–0.90

  • 21 Nov 2026, 15:00 UTC

    Aston Villa
    Sunderland
    H 51%D 27%A 22%
    Likeliest scores:1–1 13%1–0 10%2–1 10%2–0 9%0–0 8%Exp. goals 1.68–1.02

  • 21 Nov 2026, 15:00 UTC

    Bournemouth
    Nottingham Forest
    H 49%D 27%A 24%
    Likeliest scores:1–1 13%2–1 10%1–0 9%2–0 9%0–0 8%Exp. goals 1.67–1.13

  • 21 Nov 2026, 15:00 UTC

    Chelsea
    Leeds United
    H 45%D 26%A 29%
    Likeliest scores:1–1 12%2–1 9%1–2 7%2–0 7%1–0 7%Exp. goals 1.69–1.33

  • 21 Nov 2026, 15:00 UTC

    Coventry City
    Crystal Palace
    H 41%D 30%A 29%
    Likeliest scores:1–1 14%0–0 10%1–0 10%2–1 9%0–1 8%Exp. goals 1.34–1.09

  • 21 Nov 2026, 15:00 UTC

    Tottenham Hotspur
    Ipswich Town
    H 42%D 32%A 26%
    Likeliest scores:1–1 15%0–0 12%1–0 12%2–0 9%0–1 9%Exp. goals 1.27–0.95

  • 21 Nov 2026, 17:30 UTC

    Newcastle United
    Arsenal
    H 18%D 25%A 57%
    Likeliest scores:1–1 12%0–2 10%1–2 10%0–1 10%0–0 7%Exp. goals 0.95–1.86

  • 22 Nov 2026, 14:00 UTC

    Hull City
    Brighton
    H 17%D 27%A 56%
    Likeliest scores:1–1 13%0–1 12%0–2 11%0–0 10%1–2 9%Exp. goals 0.83–1.67

  • 22 Nov 2026, 16:30 UTC

    Liverpool
    Manchester United
    H 39%D 28%A 33%
    Likeliest scores:1–1 13%2–1 9%1–2 8%0–0 7%1–0 7%Exp. goals 1.49–1.37

  • 23 Nov 2026, 20:00 UTC

    Brentford
    Everton
    H 51%D 27%A 22%
    Likeliest scores:1–1 13%2–1 10%1–0 9%2–0 9%0–0 7%Exp. goals 1.73–1.08

  • 27 Nov 2026, 20:00 UTC

    Nottingham Forest
    Chelsea
    H 39%D 27%A 34%
    Likeliest scores:1–1 13%2–1 9%1–2 8%1–0 7%0–0 7%Exp. goals 1.54–1.41

  • 28 Nov 2026, 15:00 UTC

    Leeds United
    Coventry City
    H 50%D 29%A 21%
    Likeliest scores:1–1 14%1–0 12%0–0 10%2–0 10%2–1 9%Exp. goals 1.51–0.91

  • 28 Nov 2026, 15:00 UTC

    Manchester United
    Brentford
    H 49%D 25%A 25%
    Likeliest scores:1–1 12%2–1 10%2–0 8%1–0 7%1–2 7%Exp. goals 1.84–1.27

  • 28 Nov 2026, 17:30 UTC

    Ipswich Town
    Aston Villa
    H 30%D 30%A 40%
    Likeliest scores:1–1 14%0–0 10%0–1 10%1–2 9%1–0 8%Exp. goals 1.14–1.35

  • 29 Nov 2026, 12:00 UTC

    Everton
    Liverpool
    H 32%D 30%A 39%
    Likeliest scores:1–1 14%0–0 9%0–1 9%1–2 9%1–0 8%Exp. goals 1.21–1.36

  • 29 Nov 2026, 14:05 UTC

    Brighton
    Newcastle United
    H 58%D 23%A 19%
    Likeliest scores:1–1 11%2–1 10%2–0 9%1–0 8%3–1 7%Exp. goals 2.04–1.10

  • 29 Nov 2026, 14:05 UTC

    Crystal Palace
    Hull City
    H 53%D 28%A 19%
    Likeliest scores:1–1 13%1–0 12%2–0 11%0–0 10%2–1 9%Exp. goals 1.61–0.87

  • 29 Nov 2026, 14:05 UTC

    Fulham
    Bournemouth
    H 30%D 28%A 42%
    Likeliest scores:1–1 13%1–2 9%0–1 8%0–0 8%2–1 8%Exp. goals 1.27–1.52

  • 29 Nov 2026, 14:05 UTC

    Sunderland
    Tottenham Hotspur
    H 39%D 31%A 29%
    Likeliest scores:1–1 15%0–0 11%1–0 11%0–1 9%2–1 8%Exp. goals 1.27–1.06

  • 29 Nov 2026, 16:30 UTC

    Arsenal
    Manchester City
    H 47%D 28%A 25%
    Likeliest scores:1–1 13%1–0 9%2–1 9%2–0 9%0–0 8%Exp. goals 1.57–1.09

  • 2 Dec 2026, 20:00 UTC

    Aston Villa
    Everton
    H 47%D 28%A 25%
    Likeliest scores:1–1 13%1–0 10%2–1 9%2–0 9%0–0 9%Exp. goals 1.56–1.08

  • 2 Dec 2026, 20:00 UTC

    Bournemouth
    Brighton
    H 41%D 28%A 32%
    Likeliest scores:1–1 13%2–1 9%1–2 8%1–0 7%0–0 7%Exp. goals 1.54–1.34

  • 2 Dec 2026, 20:00 UTC

    Brentford
    Arsenal
    H 24%D 28%A 48%
    Likeliest scores:1–1 13%0–1 10%1–2 9%0–2 9%0–0 8%Exp. goals 1.08–1.58

  • 2 Dec 2026, 20:00 UTC

    Chelsea
    Crystal Palace
    H 56%D 23%A 20%
    Likeliest scores:1–1 11%2–1 10%2–0 8%1–0 7%3–1 7%Exp. goals 2.05–1.18

  • 2 Dec 2026, 20:00 UTC

    Coventry City
    Ipswich Town
    H 42%D 32%A 26%
    Likeliest scores:1–1 15%0–0 13%1–0 13%2–0 9%0–1 9%Exp. goals 1.25–0.91

  • 2 Dec 2026, 20:00 UTC

    Hull City
    Nottingham Forest
    H 23%D 30%A 47%
    Likeliest scores:1–1 14%0–1 13%0–0 12%0–2 10%1–2 9%Exp. goals 0.90–1.40

  • 2 Dec 2026, 20:00 UTC

    Liverpool
    Sunderland
    H 56%D 26%A 18%
    Likeliest scores:1–1 12%2–0 11%1–0 10%2–1 10%0–0 8%Exp. goals 1.79–0.93

  • 2 Dec 2026, 20:00 UTC

    Manchester City
    Leeds United
    H 59%D 24%A 17%
    Likeliest scores:1–1 11%2–1 10%2–0 10%1–0 8%3–1 7%Exp. goals 2.01–1.03

  • 2 Dec 2026, 20:00 UTC

    Newcastle United
    Manchester United
    H 29%D 26%A 46%
    Likeliest scores:1–1 12%1–2 9%2–1 7%0–2 7%2–2 6%Exp. goals 1.38–1.77

  • 2 Dec 2026, 20:00 UTC

    Tottenham Hotspur
    Fulham
    H 39%D 31%A 31%
    Likeliest scores:1–1 15%0–0 11%1–0 10%0–1 9%2–1 8%Exp. goals 1.28–1.11

  • 5 Dec 2026, 15:00 UTC

    Aston Villa
    Crystal Palace
    H 51%D 26%A 23%
    Likeliest scores:1–1 12%2–1 10%2–0 9%1–0 8%0–0 7%Exp. goals 1.77–1.12

  • 5 Dec 2026, 15:00 UTC

    Bournemouth
    Hull City
    H 67%D 22%A 11%
    Likeliest scores:2–0 13%1–0 12%1–1 10%2–1 10%3–0 9%Exp. goals 2.05–0.73

  • 5 Dec 2026, 15:00 UTC

    Brentford
    Manchester City
    H 30%D 26%A 45%
    Likeliest scores:1–1 12%1–2 9%2–1 7%0–2 7%2–2 6%Exp. goals 1.41–1.75

  • 5 Dec 2026, 15:00 UTC

    Chelsea
    Liverpool
    H 42%D 26%A 32%
    Likeliest scores:1–1 12%2–1 9%1–2 8%2–2 6%1–0 6%Exp. goals 1.65–1.43

  • 5 Dec 2026, 15:00 UTC

    Everton
    Fulham
    H 42%D 30%A 28%
    Likeliest scores:1–1 14%1–0 10%0–0 10%2–1 9%2–0 8%Exp. goals 1.41–1.10

  • 5 Dec 2026, 15:00 UTC

    Leeds United
    Ipswich Town
    H 54%D 28%A 19%
    Likeliest scores:1–1 13%1–0 12%2–0 11%0–0 10%2–1 9%Exp. goals 1.63–0.88

  • 5 Dec 2026, 15:00 UTC

    Manchester United
    Coventry City
    H 58%D 26%A 17%
    Likeliest scores:1–1 12%2–0 11%1–0 11%2–1 10%0–0 8%Exp. goals 1.80–0.87

  • 5 Dec 2026, 15:00 UTC

    Newcastle United
    Sunderland
    H 46%D 27%A 27%
    Likeliest scores:1–1 13%2–1 9%1–0 8%2–0 8%0–0 7%Exp. goals 1.64–1.20

  • 5 Dec 2026, 15:00 UTC

    Nottingham Forest
    Brighton
    H 34%D 29%A 37%
    Likeliest scores:1–1 14%0–0 9%1–2 8%0–1 8%2–1 8%Exp. goals 1.28–1.36

  • 5 Dec 2026, 15:00 UTC

    Tottenham Hotspur
    Arsenal
    H 16%D 28%A 56%
    Likeliest scores:0–1 14%1–1 13%0–2 12%0–0 11%1–2 9%Exp. goals 0.75–1.60

  • 12 Dec 2026, 15:00 UTC

    Arsenal
    Bournemouth
    H 58%D 25%A 17%
    Likeliest scores:1–1 12%2–0 11%1–0 11%2–1 10%0–0 8%Exp. goals 1.83–0.89

  • 12 Dec 2026, 15:00 UTC

    Brighton
    Everton
    H 54%D 26%A 19%
    Likeliest scores:1–1 13%1–0 10%2–0 10%2–1 10%0–0 8%Exp. goals 1.74–0.95

  • 12 Dec 2026, 15:00 UTC

    Coventry City
    Aston Villa
    H 33%D 31%A 36%
    Likeliest scores:1–1 15%0–0 10%0–1 9%1–0 9%1–2 8%Exp. goals 1.18–1.25

  • 12 Dec 2026, 15:00 UTC

    Crystal Palace
    Manchester United
    H 26%D 27%A 47%
    Likeliest scores:1–1 12%1–2 9%0–2 8%0–1 8%2–1 7%Exp. goals 1.24–1.71

  • 12 Dec 2026, 15:00 UTC

    Fulham
    Brentford
    H 33%D 28%A 40%
    Likeliest scores:1–1 13%1–2 9%2–1 8%0–1 7%0–0 7%Exp. goals 1.35–1.50

  • 12 Dec 2026, 15:00 UTC

    Hull City
    Tottenham Hotspur
    H 28%D 33%A 39%
    Likeliest scores:1–1 15%0–0 14%0–1 12%1–0 10%0–2 8%Exp. goals 0.95–1.16

  • 12 Dec 2026, 15:00 UTC

    Ipswich Town
    Newcastle United
    H 36%D 29%A 35%
    Likeliest scores:1–1 14%0–0 8%2–1 8%1–2 8%1–0 8%Exp. goals 1.35–1.32

  • 12 Dec 2026, 15:00 UTC

    Liverpool
    Leeds United
    H 45%D 28%A 27%
    Likeliest scores:1–1 13%2–1 9%1–0 9%0–0 8%2–0 8%Exp. goals 1.55–1.15

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