Premier League 2026/27
Hull City
Results through 18 Oct 2026 · dated forecast · pc-xg-2.0.0
No player or injury effects.
Win the title
0.0%
Top-four finish
0.0%
Relegation
72.6%
Projected points
34.1
In 80% of simulated seasons, Hull City finish with 27–42 points. That is a range of possible match outcomes, not a guarantee. Top four means league position, not guaranteed European qualification.
0.0% means no such finish occurred in this run, not that it is impossible.
How this forecast works
Recorded match results inform team ratings. The remaining season is simulated 100,000 times, keeping played results fixed. The points range assumes those ratings are right; it does not include uncertainty in the ratings. No player, injury or rest-day adjustments are included.
Snapshot dated 18 Oct 2026Results through 18 Oct 2026 · no scheduled results missing as of 18 Oct 2026 · next fixtures 18 Oct 2026
- Season
- 2026/27
- Data cutoff
- 18 Oct 2026
- Source fetched
- 18 Oct 2026, 16:17 UTC
- Model run
- 18 Oct 2026, 16:17 UTC
- Simulations
- 100,000 · seed 1613084666
- Model
- pc-xg-2.0.0
Pitchcast app engine · Results data: OpenFootball (CC0), with validated final-score supplementation where available. Historical shot-based expected goals: Understat.com. Football data provided by the Football-Data.org API
Seed 1613084666. Sampling noise is separate from model uncertainty. Source records and checksums are retained with the snapshot.
More about possible finishes and team ratings
Finishing position distribution
Current table
9th · 9 pts from 7 · 2W 3D 2L · GD +1
Projected final points
34.1
80% of simulations finish between 27 and 42 points (median 34). This spread reflects match randomness given the fitted ratings, not uncertainty in the ratings themselves.
Ratings (log-scale, 0 = average)
Attack −0.11 · Defence −0.05
Remaining fixtures
All league fixturesOrdered by kickoff (UTC). Kickoff times and status: Football data provided by the Football-Data.org API; probabilities unchanged from the snapshot. Expected goals are the model's predicted goal rates, not shot-based xG.
- Exp. goals 0.94–1.66H 20%D 27%A 53%
- Exp. goals 0.99–1.10H 31%D 33%A 36%
- Exp. goals 2.27–0.48H 77%D 17%A 5%
- Exp. goals 0.83–1.67H 17%D 27%A 56%
- Exp. goals 1.61–0.87H 53%D 28%A 19%
- Exp. goals 0.90–1.40H 23%D 30%A 47%
- Exp. goals 2.05–0.73H 67%D 22%A 11%
- Exp. goals 0.95–1.16H 28%D 33%A 39%
- Exp. goals 2.52–0.63H 78%D 16%A 6%
- Exp. goals 0.86–1.59H 19%D 28%A 53%
- Exp. goals 0.88–1.48H 21%D 29%A 50%
- Exp. goals 1.47–0.83H 51%D 30%A 20%
- Exp. goals 1.71–0.73H 59%D 26%A 14%
- Exp. goals 0.59–1.86H 10%D 23%A 67%
- Exp. goals 1.34–0.81H 48%D 31%A 21%
- Exp. goals 1.07–1.32H 29%D 31%A 41%
- Exp. goals 2.04–0.68H 68%D 22%A 10%
- Exp. goals 1.01–1.20H 29%D 32%A 39%
- Exp. goals 1.95–0.70H 66%D 23%A 11%
- Exp. goals 0.77–2.06H 12%D 22%A 66%
- Exp. goals 1.81–0.72H 62%D 25%A 13%
- Exp. goals 1.84–0.77H 61%D 25%A 14%
- Exp. goals 0.99–1.73H 20%D 26%A 53%
- Exp. goals 2.16–0.69H 70%D 20%A 10%
- Exp. goals 0.92–1.13H 28%D 33%A 39%
- Exp. goals 1.42–0.78H 51%D 30%A 19%
- Exp. goals 0.89–1.68H 18%D 27%A 55%
- Exp. goals 1.56–0.77H 55%D 28%A 17%
- Exp. goals 1.00–1.29H 27%D 31%A 42%
- Exp. goals 2.03–0.77H 66%D 22%A 12%
- Exp. goals 1.11–1.47H 27%D 29%A 44%
Model factors and source records
- activeShot-quality team ratingsPremier League ratings blend 75% verified historical Understat xG with 25% goals, scaled to actual scoring using training matches only. Championship inputs remain goals. Selected on 2024/25; later-season gains are modest and uncertain.
- activeOpponent-adjusted attack & defence ratingsFitted jointly over Premier League and Championship results with ridge shrinkage.
- activeHome advantageSingle fitted coefficient, shared by all teams.
- activeRecency weighting (form)Exponential time decay on past matches; no streak bonuses.
- activeLow-score (Dixon–Coles) correctionρ fitted by profile likelihood; adjusts 0-0, 1-0, 0-1, 1-1 only.
- activePromoted-team priorsChampionship results linked to the PL scale via teams that moved divisions, shrunk toward average.
- disabledPlayer availability & injuriesNo licensed, verified player data source yet. Not part of the baseline.
- disabledRest days & fixture congestionRequires kickoff times and an estimated, tested coefficient. Off until validated.
- disabledMarket oddsNot used as an input or benchmark until timing and licence are established.
Pitchcast app engine · Results data: OpenFootball (CC0), with validated final-score supplementation where available. Historical shot-based expected goals: Understat.com. Football data provided by the Football-Data.org API
Training data through 18 Oct 2026 · 899 matches · model pc-xg-2.0.0