Premier League 2026/27
Nottingham Forest
Results through 18 Oct 2026 · dated forecast · pc-xg-2.0.0
No player or injury effects.
Win the title
0.0%
Top-four finish
2.1%
Relegation
7.1%
Projected points
47.9
In 80% of simulated seasons, Nottingham Forest finish with 39–57 points. That is a range of possible match outcomes, not a guarantee. Top four means league position, not guaranteed European qualification.
How this forecast works
Recorded match results inform team ratings. The remaining season is simulated 100,000 times, keeping played results fixed. The points range assumes those ratings are right; it does not include uncertainty in the ratings. No player, injury or rest-day adjustments are included.
Snapshot dated 18 Oct 2026Results through 18 Oct 2026 · no scheduled results missing as of 18 Oct 2026 · next fixtures 18 Oct 2026
- Season
- 2026/27
- Data cutoff
- 18 Oct 2026
- Source fetched
- 18 Oct 2026, 16:17 UTC
- Model run
- 18 Oct 2026, 16:17 UTC
- Simulations
- 100,000 · seed 1613084666
- Model
- pc-xg-2.0.0
Pitchcast app engine · Results data: OpenFootball (CC0), with validated final-score supplementation where available. Historical shot-based expected goals: Understat.com. Football data provided by the Football-Data.org API
Seed 1613084666. Sampling noise is separate from model uncertainty. Source records and checksums are retained with the snapshot.
More about possible finishes and team ratings
Finishing position distribution
Current table
18th · 5 pts from 6 · 1W 2D 3L · GD −3
Projected final points
47.9
80% of simulations finish between 39 and 57 points (median 48). This spread reflects match randomness given the fitted ratings, not uncertainty in the ratings themselves.
Ratings (log-scale, 0 = average)
Attack +0.33 · Defence +0.15
Remaining fixtures
All league fixturesOrdered by kickoff (UTC). Kickoff times and status: Football data provided by the Football-Data.org API; probabilities unchanged from the snapshot. Expected goals are the model's predicted goal rates, not shot-based xG.
- Exp. goals 0.91–1.51H 21%D 29%A 50%
- Exp. goals 1.09–1.26H 30%D 31%A 39%
- Exp. goals 1.65–1.19H 47%D 27%A 26%
- Exp. goals 1.19–1.67H 26%D 27%A 47%
- Exp. goals 1.67–1.13H 49%D 27%A 24%
- Exp. goals 1.54–1.41H 39%D 27%A 34%
- Exp. goals 0.90–1.40H 23%D 30%A 47%
- Exp. goals 1.28–1.36H 34%D 29%A 37%
- Exp. goals 1.19–1.28H 33%D 30%A 37%
- Exp. goals 1.46–1.03H 45%D 29%A 25%
- Exp. goals 1.76–1.07H 52%D 26%A 22%
- Exp. goals 1.46–1.40H 37%D 28%A 35%
- Exp. goals 1.55–1.05H 47%D 28%A 24%
- Exp. goals 1.71–0.73H 59%D 26%A 14%
- Exp. goals 2.05–0.97H 61%D 23%A 16%
- Exp. goals 1.38–1.37H 36%D 29%A 35%
- Exp. goals 1.72–1.26H 47%D 26%A 27%
- Exp. goals 1.46–1.35H 38%D 28%A 34%
- Exp. goals 1.28–1.27H 36%D 30%A 35%
- Exp. goals 1.31–1.44H 33%D 28%A 39%
- Exp. goals 1.27–1.19H 37%D 30%A 33%
- Exp. goals 1.72–1.19H 48%D 27%A 25%
- Exp. goals 1.15–1.21H 33%D 31%A 36%
- Exp. goals 1.46–1.22H 41%D 29%A 30%
- Exp. goals 1.47–1.12H 44%D 29%A 27%
- Exp. goals 1.33–1.29H 36%D 29%A 35%
- Exp. goals 1.57–0.98H 50%D 28%A 22%
- Exp. goals 1.66–1.05H 50%D 27%A 23%
- Exp. goals 1.66–1.07H 50%D 27%A 23%
- Exp. goals 1.85–0.74H 62%D 24%A 13%
- Exp. goals 1.54–0.89H 51%D 29%A 20%
- Exp. goals 1.13–1.16H 33%D 32%A 35%
Model factors and source records
- activeShot-quality team ratingsPremier League ratings blend 75% verified historical Understat xG with 25% goals, scaled to actual scoring using training matches only. Championship inputs remain goals. Selected on 2024/25; later-season gains are modest and uncertain.
- activeOpponent-adjusted attack & defence ratingsFitted jointly over Premier League and Championship results with ridge shrinkage.
- activeHome advantageSingle fitted coefficient, shared by all teams.
- activeRecency weighting (form)Exponential time decay on past matches; no streak bonuses.
- activeLow-score (Dixon–Coles) correctionρ fitted by profile likelihood; adjusts 0-0, 1-0, 0-1, 1-1 only.
- activePromoted-team priorsChampionship results linked to the PL scale via teams that moved divisions, shrunk toward average.
- disabledPlayer availability & injuriesNo licensed, verified player data source yet. Not part of the baseline.
- disabledRest days & fixture congestionRequires kickoff times and an estimated, tested coefficient. Off until validated.
- disabledMarket oddsNot used as an input or benchmark until timing and licence are established.
Pitchcast app engine · Results data: OpenFootball (CC0), with validated final-score supplementation where available. Historical shot-based expected goals: Understat.com. Football data provided by the Football-Data.org API
Training data through 18 Oct 2026 · 899 matches · model pc-xg-2.0.0