Premier League 2026/27
Leeds United
Results through 18 Oct 2026 · dated forecast · pc-xg-2.0.0
No player or injury effects.
Win the title
0.1%
Top-four finish
12.5%
Relegation
0.8%
Projected points
54.7
In 80% of simulated seasons, Leeds United finish with 46–64 points. That is a range of possible match outcomes, not a guarantee. Top four means league position, not guaranteed European qualification.
How this forecast works
Recorded match results inform team ratings. The remaining season is simulated 100,000 times, keeping played results fixed. The points range assumes those ratings are right; it does not include uncertainty in the ratings. No player, injury or rest-day adjustments are included.
Snapshot dated 18 Oct 2026Results through 18 Oct 2026 · no scheduled results missing as of 18 Oct 2026 · next fixtures 18 Oct 2026
- Season
- 2026/27
- Data cutoff
- 18 Oct 2026
- Source fetched
- 18 Oct 2026, 16:17 UTC
- Model run
- 18 Oct 2026, 16:17 UTC
- Simulations
- 100,000 · seed 1613084666
- Model
- pc-xg-2.0.0
Pitchcast app engine · Results data: OpenFootball (CC0), with validated final-score supplementation where available. Historical shot-based expected goals: Understat.com. Football data provided by the Football-Data.org API
Seed 1613084666. Sampling noise is separate from model uncertainty. Source records and checksums are retained with the snapshot.
More about possible finishes and team ratings
Finishing position distribution
Current table
7th · 10 pts from 7 · 2W 4D 1L · GD +3
Projected final points
54.7
80% of simulations finish between 46 and 64 points (median 55). This spread reflects match randomness given the fitted ratings, not uncertainty in the ratings themselves.
Ratings (log-scale, 0 = average)
Attack +0.38 · Defence +0.17
Remaining fixtures
All league fixturesOrdered by kickoff (UTC). Kickoff times and status: Football data provided by the Football-Data.org API; probabilities unchanged from the snapshot. Expected goals are the model's predicted goal rates, not shot-based xG.
- Exp. goals 1.17–1.36H 31%D 30%A 40%
- Exp. goals 1.64–1.19H 46%D 27%A 26%
- Exp. goals 1.56–0.92H 51%D 28%A 21%
- Exp. goals 1.69–1.33H 45%D 26%A 29%
- Exp. goals 1.51–0.91H 50%D 29%A 21%
- Exp. goals 2.01–1.03H 59%D 24%A 17%
- Exp. goals 1.63–0.88H 54%D 28%A 19%
- Exp. goals 1.55–1.15H 45%D 28%A 27%
- Exp. goals 1.64–1.03H 50%D 27%A 22%
- Exp. goals 1.46–1.26H 40%D 28%A 31%
- Exp. goals 0.88–1.48H 21%D 29%A 50%
- Exp. goals 1.54–1.02H 48%D 29%A 23%
- Exp. goals 1.26–1.64H 28%D 27%A 45%
- Exp. goals 1.13–1.28H 31%D 31%A 38%
- Exp. goals 1.63–1.38H 42%D 27%A 31%
- Exp. goals 1.11–1.23H 31%D 31%A 37%
- Exp. goals 1.46–1.34H 39%D 28%A 33%
- Exp. goals 1.24–1.26H 34%D 30%A 35%
- Exp. goals 1.54–1.20H 44%D 28%A 28%
- Exp. goals 1.26–1.34H 33%D 29%A 37%
- Exp. goals 1.81–0.72H 62%D 25%A 13%
- Exp. goals 1.36–1.33H 36%D 29%A 35%
- Exp. goals 1.43–1.49H 35%D 28%A 37%
- Exp. goals 1.47–1.12H 44%D 29%A 27%
- Exp. goals 1.62–1.26H 44%D 27%A 28%
- Exp. goals 1.41–1.27H 39%D 29%A 32%
- Exp. goals 1.07–1.33H 28%D 30%A 41%
- Exp. goals 0.96–1.48H 23%D 29%A 48%
- Exp. goals 1.72–1.14H 50%D 27%A 24%
- Exp. goals 1.66–0.96H 52%D 27%A 20%
- Exp. goals 1.28–1.43H 32%D 29%A 39%
Model factors and source records
- activeShot-quality team ratingsPremier League ratings blend 75% verified historical Understat xG with 25% goals, scaled to actual scoring using training matches only. Championship inputs remain goals. Selected on 2024/25; later-season gains are modest and uncertain.
- activeOpponent-adjusted attack & defence ratingsFitted jointly over Premier League and Championship results with ridge shrinkage.
- activeHome advantageSingle fitted coefficient, shared by all teams.
- activeRecency weighting (form)Exponential time decay on past matches; no streak bonuses.
- activeLow-score (Dixon–Coles) correctionρ fitted by profile likelihood; adjusts 0-0, 1-0, 0-1, 1-1 only.
- activePromoted-team priorsChampionship results linked to the PL scale via teams that moved divisions, shrunk toward average.
- disabledPlayer availability & injuriesNo licensed, verified player data source yet. Not part of the baseline.
- disabledRest days & fixture congestionRequires kickoff times and an estimated, tested coefficient. Off until validated.
- disabledMarket oddsNot used as an input or benchmark until timing and licence are established.
Pitchcast app engine · Results data: OpenFootball (CC0), with validated final-score supplementation where available. Historical shot-based expected goals: Understat.com. Football data provided by the Football-Data.org API
Training data through 18 Oct 2026 · 899 matches · model pc-xg-2.0.0