Premier League 2026/27
Fulham
Results through 18 Oct 2026 · dated forecast · pc-xg-2.0.0
No player or injury effects.
Win the title
0.0%
Top-four finish
0.1%
Relegation
32.3%
Projected points
40.6
In 80% of simulated seasons, Fulham finish with 32–49 points. That is a range of possible match outcomes, not a guarantee. Top four means league position, not guaranteed European qualification.
How this forecast works
Recorded match results inform team ratings. The remaining season is simulated 100,000 times, keeping played results fixed. The points range assumes those ratings are right; it does not include uncertainty in the ratings. No player, injury or rest-day adjustments are included.
Snapshot dated 18 Oct 2026Results through 18 Oct 2026 · no scheduled results missing as of 18 Oct 2026 · next fixtures 18 Oct 2026
- Season
- 2026/27
- Data cutoff
- 18 Oct 2026
- Source fetched
- 18 Oct 2026, 16:17 UTC
- Model run
- 18 Oct 2026, 16:17 UTC
- Simulations
- 100,000 · seed 1613084666
- Model
- pc-xg-2.0.0
Pitchcast app engine · Results data: OpenFootball (CC0), with validated final-score supplementation where available. Historical shot-based expected goals: Understat.com. Football data provided by the Football-Data.org API
Seed 1613084666. Sampling noise is separate from model uncertainty. Source records and checksums are retained with the snapshot.
More about possible finishes and team ratings
Finishing position distribution
Current table
17th · 5 pts from 7 · 1W 2D 4L · GD −3
Projected final points
40.6
80% of simulations finish between 32 and 49 points (median 40). This spread reflects match randomness given the fitted ratings, not uncertainty in the ratings themselves.
Ratings (log-scale, 0 = average)
Attack +0.25 · Defence +0.05
Remaining fixtures
All league fixturesOrdered by kickoff (UTC). Kickoff times and status: Football data provided by the Football-Data.org API; probabilities unchanged from the snapshot. Expected goals are the model's predicted goal rates, not shot-based xG.
- Exp. goals 1.25–1.07H 39%D 31%A 30%
- Exp. goals 1.66–1.10H 49%D 27%A 24%
- Exp. goals 1.58–1.33H 42%D 27%A 31%
- Exp. goals 2.28–0.90H 67%D 20%A 12%
- Exp. goals 1.27–1.52H 30%D 28%A 42%
- Exp. goals 1.28–1.11H 39%D 31%A 31%
- Exp. goals 1.41–1.10H 42%D 30%A 28%
- Exp. goals 1.35–1.50H 33%D 28%A 40%
- Exp. goals 1.64–1.03H 50%D 27%A 22%
- Exp. goals 1.18–1.51H 28%D 28%A 43%
- Exp. goals 0.84–1.68H 17%D 27%A 56%
- Exp. goals 1.55–1.05H 47%D 28%A 24%
- Exp. goals 1.36–1.05H 42%D 30%A 27%
- Exp. goals 1.62–1.30H 44%D 27%A 29%
- Exp. goals 1.34–1.36H 35%D 29%A 36%
- Exp. goals 1.86–1.04H 55%D 25%A 20%
- Exp. goals 1.09–1.86H 21%D 25%A 54%
- Exp. goals 1.28–1.27H 36%D 30%A 35%
- Exp. goals 2.06–0.69H 68%D 22%A 10%
- Exp. goals 1.26–1.34H 33%D 29%A 37%
- Exp. goals 1.84–0.97H 57%D 25%A 18%
- Exp. goals 1.46–1.25H 40%D 29%A 31%
- Exp. goals 1.23–1.44H 31%D 29%A 40%
- Exp. goals 1.92–1.16H 54%D 25%A 22%
- Exp. goals 1.45–1.09H 44%D 29%A 27%
- Exp. goals 1.84–1.10H 53%D 25%A 21%
- Exp. goals 1.35–1.15H 40%D 30%A 30%
- Exp. goals 1.42–0.99H 45%D 30%A 25%
- Exp. goals 1.00–1.29H 27%D 31%A 42%
- Exp. goals 1.31–1.03H 42%D 31%A 28%
- Exp. goals 1.96–0.99H 59%D 24%A 17%
Model factors and source records
- activeShot-quality team ratingsPremier League ratings blend 75% verified historical Understat xG with 25% goals, scaled to actual scoring using training matches only. Championship inputs remain goals. Selected on 2024/25; later-season gains are modest and uncertain.
- activeOpponent-adjusted attack & defence ratingsFitted jointly over Premier League and Championship results with ridge shrinkage.
- activeHome advantageSingle fitted coefficient, shared by all teams.
- activeRecency weighting (form)Exponential time decay on past matches; no streak bonuses.
- activeLow-score (Dixon–Coles) correctionρ fitted by profile likelihood; adjusts 0-0, 1-0, 0-1, 1-1 only.
- activePromoted-team priorsChampionship results linked to the PL scale via teams that moved divisions, shrunk toward average.
- disabledPlayer availability & injuriesNo licensed, verified player data source yet. Not part of the baseline.
- disabledRest days & fixture congestionRequires kickoff times and an estimated, tested coefficient. Off until validated.
- disabledMarket oddsNot used as an input or benchmark until timing and licence are established.
Pitchcast app engine · Results data: OpenFootball (CC0), with validated final-score supplementation where available. Historical shot-based expected goals: Understat.com. Football data provided by the Football-Data.org API
Training data through 18 Oct 2026 · 899 matches · model pc-xg-2.0.0