Premier League 2026/27
Aston Villa
Results through 18 Oct 2026 · dated forecast · pc-xg-2.0.0
No player or injury effects.
Win the title
0.0%
Top-four finish
4.7%
Relegation
2.9%
Projected points
51.0
In 80% of simulated seasons, Aston Villa finish with 42–60 points. That is a range of possible match outcomes, not a guarantee. Top four means league position, not guaranteed European qualification.
How this forecast works
Recorded match results inform team ratings. The remaining season is simulated 100,000 times, keeping played results fixed. The points range assumes those ratings are right; it does not include uncertainty in the ratings. No player, injury or rest-day adjustments are included.
Snapshot dated 18 Oct 2026Results through 18 Oct 2026 · no scheduled results missing as of 18 Oct 2026 · next fixtures 18 Oct 2026
- Season
- 2026/27
- Data cutoff
- 18 Oct 2026
- Source fetched
- 18 Oct 2026, 16:17 UTC
- Model run
- 18 Oct 2026, 16:17 UTC
- Simulations
- 100,000 · seed 1613084666
- Model
- pc-xg-2.0.0
Pitchcast app engine · Results data: OpenFootball (CC0), with validated final-score supplementation where available. Historical shot-based expected goals: Understat.com. Football data provided by the Football-Data.org API
Seed 1613084666. Sampling noise is separate from model uncertainty. Source records and checksums are retained with the snapshot.
More about possible finishes and team ratings
Finishing position distribution
Current table
12th · 8 pts from 7 · 2W 2D 3L · GD −4
Projected final points
51.0
80% of simulations finish between 42 and 60 points (median 51). This spread reflects match randomness given the fitted ratings, not uncertainty in the ratings themselves.
Ratings (log-scale, 0 = average)
Attack +0.40 · Defence +0.11
Remaining fixtures
All league fixturesOrdered by kickoff (UTC). Kickoff times and status: Football data provided by the Football-Data.org API; probabilities unchanged from the snapshot. Expected goals are the model's predicted goal rates, not shot-based xG.
- Exp. goals 1.27–1.75H 27%D 26%A 47%
- Exp. goals 1.66–1.10H 49%D 27%A 24%
- Exp. goals 1.84–1.15H 52%D 25%A 22%
- Exp. goals 1.68–1.02H 51%D 27%A 22%
- Exp. goals 1.14–1.35H 30%D 30%A 40%
- Exp. goals 1.56–1.08H 47%D 28%A 25%
- Exp. goals 1.77–1.12H 51%D 26%A 23%
- Exp. goals 1.18–1.25H 33%D 31%A 36%
- Exp. goals 1.80–1.35H 47%D 26%A 27%
- Exp. goals 1.46–1.26H 40%D 28%A 31%
- Exp. goals 1.43–1.35H 38%D 28%A 34%
- Exp. goals 1.75–1.21H 49%D 26%A 25%
- Exp. goals 1.32–1.28H 36%D 29%A 34%
- Exp. goals 1.41–1.50H 34%D 28%A 38%
- Exp. goals 1.34–1.36H 35%D 29%A 36%
- Exp. goals 1.65–0.94H 53%D 27%A 20%
- Exp. goals 1.25–1.38H 32%D 29%A 38%
- Exp. goals 1.48–1.43H 37%D 28%A 35%
- Exp. goals 1.54–1.20H 44%D 28%A 28%
- Exp. goals 1.65–1.47H 41%D 26%A 33%
- Exp. goals 1.65–1.17H 47%D 27%A 25%
- Exp. goals 1.84–0.77H 61%D 25%A 14%
- Exp. goals 1.46–1.22H 41%D 29%A 30%
- Exp. goals 1.37–1.42H 35%D 28%A 37%
- Exp. goals 1.93–0.80H 63%D 24%A 13%
- Exp. goals 1.53–0.96H 49%D 29%A 22%
- Exp. goals 1.37–1.45H 34%D 28%A 38%
- Exp. goals 1.73–1.28H 47%D 26%A 27%
- Exp. goals 1.84–1.25H 50%D 25%A 25%
- Exp. goals 2.14–1.04H 61%D 22%A 16%
- Exp. goals 1.58–0.98H 50%D 28%A 22%
Model factors and source records
- activeShot-quality team ratingsPremier League ratings blend 75% verified historical Understat xG with 25% goals, scaled to actual scoring using training matches only. Championship inputs remain goals. Selected on 2024/25; later-season gains are modest and uncertain.
- activeOpponent-adjusted attack & defence ratingsFitted jointly over Premier League and Championship results with ridge shrinkage.
- activeHome advantageSingle fitted coefficient, shared by all teams.
- activeRecency weighting (form)Exponential time decay on past matches; no streak bonuses.
- activeLow-score (Dixon–Coles) correctionρ fitted by profile likelihood; adjusts 0-0, 1-0, 0-1, 1-1 only.
- activePromoted-team priorsChampionship results linked to the PL scale via teams that moved divisions, shrunk toward average.
- disabledPlayer availability & injuriesNo licensed, verified player data source yet. Not part of the baseline.
- disabledRest days & fixture congestionRequires kickoff times and an estimated, tested coefficient. Off until validated.
- disabledMarket oddsNot used as an input or benchmark until timing and licence are established.
Pitchcast app engine · Results data: OpenFootball (CC0), with validated final-score supplementation where available. Historical shot-based expected goals: Understat.com. Football data provided by the Football-Data.org API
Training data through 18 Oct 2026 · 899 matches · model pc-xg-2.0.0