Premier League 2026/27
Brentford
Results through 18 Oct 2026 · dated forecast · pc-xg-2.0.0
No player or injury effects.
Win the title
0.1%
Top-four finish
16.0%
Relegation
0.5%
Projected points
55.9
In 80% of simulated seasons, Brentford finish with 47–65 points. That is a range of possible match outcomes, not a guarantee. Top four means league position, not guaranteed European qualification.
How this forecast works
Recorded match results inform team ratings. The remaining season is simulated 100,000 times, keeping played results fixed. The points range assumes those ratings are right; it does not include uncertainty in the ratings. No player, injury or rest-day adjustments are included.
Snapshot dated 18 Oct 2026Results through 18 Oct 2026 · no scheduled results missing as of 18 Oct 2026 · next fixtures 18 Oct 2026
- Season
- 2026/27
- Data cutoff
- 18 Oct 2026
- Source fetched
- 18 Oct 2026, 16:17 UTC
- Model run
- 18 Oct 2026, 16:17 UTC
- Simulations
- 100,000 · seed 1613084666
- Model
- pc-xg-2.0.0
Pitchcast app engine · Results data: OpenFootball (CC0), with validated final-score supplementation where available. Historical shot-based expected goals: Understat.com. Football data provided by the Football-Data.org API
Seed 1613084666. Sampling noise is separate from model uncertainty. Source records and checksums are retained with the snapshot.
More about possible finishes and team ratings
Finishing position distribution
Current table
6th · 10 pts from 7 · 2W 4D 1L · GD +5
Projected final points
55.9
80% of simulations finish between 47 and 65 points (median 56). This spread reflects match randomness given the fitted ratings, not uncertainty in the ratings themselves.
Ratings (log-scale, 0 = average)
Attack +0.50 · Defence +0.11
Remaining fixtures
All league fixturesOrdered by kickoff (UTC). Kickoff times and status: Football data provided by the Football-Data.org API; probabilities unchanged from the snapshot. Expected goals are the model's predicted goal rates, not shot-based xG.
- Exp. goals 0.94–1.66H 20%D 27%A 53%
- Exp. goals 1.65–1.19H 47%D 27%A 26%
- Exp. goals 1.74–1.24H 48%D 26%A 26%
- Exp. goals 1.73–1.08H 51%D 27%A 22%
- Exp. goals 1.84–1.27H 49%D 25%A 25%
- Exp. goals 1.08–1.58H 24%D 28%A 48%
- Exp. goals 1.41–1.75H 30%D 26%A 45%
- Exp. goals 1.35–1.50H 33%D 28%A 40%
- Exp. goals 2.03–1.25H 54%D 24%A 22%
- Exp. goals 1.14–1.49H 28%D 29%A 44%
- Exp. goals 1.18–1.38H 31%D 30%A 40%
- Exp. goals 1.96–1.12H 56%D 24%A 20%
- Exp. goals 1.93–0.88H 61%D 24%A 15%
- Exp. goals 1.52–1.42H 39%D 27%A 34%
- Exp. goals 1.32–1.41H 34%D 29%A 38%
- Exp. goals 1.56–1.50H 38%D 27%A 35%
- Exp. goals 1.46–1.35H 38%D 28%A 34%
- Exp. goals 1.37–1.61H 31%D 27%A 42%
- Exp. goals 1.69–0.97H 53%D 27%A 20%
- Exp. goals 1.53–1.66H 34%D 26%A 40%
- Exp. goals 1.83–0.94H 57%D 25%A 18%
- Exp. goals 1.25–1.52H 30%D 28%A 42%
- Exp. goals 1.63–1.43H 41%D 27%A 32%
- Exp. goals 1.20–1.43H 30%D 29%A 41%
- Exp. goals 1.62–1.26H 44%D 27%A 28%
- Exp. goals 1.84–1.10H 53%D 25%A 21%
- Exp. goals 2.14–1.15H 59%D 23%A 19%
- Exp. goals 1.73–1.28H 47%D 26%A 27%
- Exp. goals 1.66–1.29H 45%D 27%A 28%
- Exp. goals 2.03–0.77H 66%D 22%A 12%
- Exp. goals 1.80–1.49H 44%D 25%A 31%
Model factors and source records
- activeShot-quality team ratingsPremier League ratings blend 75% verified historical Understat xG with 25% goals, scaled to actual scoring using training matches only. Championship inputs remain goals. Selected on 2024/25; later-season gains are modest and uncertain.
- activeOpponent-adjusted attack & defence ratingsFitted jointly over Premier League and Championship results with ridge shrinkage.
- activeHome advantageSingle fitted coefficient, shared by all teams.
- activeRecency weighting (form)Exponential time decay on past matches; no streak bonuses.
- activeLow-score (Dixon–Coles) correctionρ fitted by profile likelihood; adjusts 0-0, 1-0, 0-1, 1-1 only.
- activePromoted-team priorsChampionship results linked to the PL scale via teams that moved divisions, shrunk toward average.
- disabledPlayer availability & injuriesNo licensed, verified player data source yet. Not part of the baseline.
- disabledRest days & fixture congestionRequires kickoff times and an estimated, tested coefficient. Off until validated.
- disabledMarket oddsNot used as an input or benchmark until timing and licence are established.
Pitchcast app engine · Results data: OpenFootball (CC0), with validated final-score supplementation where available. Historical shot-based expected goals: Understat.com. Football data provided by the Football-Data.org API
Training data through 18 Oct 2026 · 899 matches · model pc-xg-2.0.0